TXN Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-22

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
TXN Report Q2 Revenue BEAT pred ~$5.30B vs. cons $5.21B MEDIUM
TXN Report Q2 EPS BEAT pred ~$1.98 vs. cons $1.92 MEDIUM
TXN Report Q2 Free Cash Flow BEAT pred ~$1.95B vs. cons $1.77B LOW
TXN Guide Q3 2026 Revenue Guide UNCHANGED guide ~$5.40B vs. cons ~$5.45B (Q3 2026) MEDIUM
TXN Guide Q3 2026 EPS Guide LOWER guide ~$1.98 vs. cons $2.05 (Q3 2026) MEDIUM
TXN Guide FY2026 FCF per Share Framework UNCHANGED guide ~$8.10 vs. cons $8.00 (FY2026) LOW
TXN Guide 2H26 Pricing Commentary BETTER guide ~+1-2% price increase vs. cons ~0% flat (2H26) LOW
TXN Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -1.5% MEDIUM
TXN Return 5-day cumulative residual -3.0% (FADE) Q2 print likely beats on revenue/EPS/FCF given industrial and data-center momentum, but management's own framing of 2H26 sustainability as the 'biggest question' plus a cautious Q3 EPS guide (below consensus) implies analysts trim out-period estimates even after a headline beat. With the stock already up ~65% YTD and priced for continued acceleration, any hedge-y commentary on China auto or 2H26 breadth triggers estimate revision cuts over the following days, consistent with the 2025 pattern of strong-first-half/fading-second-half. Initial pop (if any) fades as sell-side models true up 2H26 numbers lower. MEDIUM