Texas Instruments (TXN) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

Prepared: July 21, 2026 Earnings Date: July 22, 2026 (After Market Close) Reporting Period: Q2 2026

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: The setup into Q2 2026 is constructive — consensus sits at the midpoint of guidance, estimates have been revised modestly higher post-Q1, and the industrial recovery narrative has been validated by multiple peers. The biggest swing factor is whether industrial breadth holds and whether pricing inflects positively in H2.

Texas Instruments heads into Q2 2026 earnings with a high bar set by its own blowout Q1 print, where revenue of $4.83B came in above the top of guidance and EPS of $1.68 beat consensus by $0.31. Management guided Q2 revenue to $5.0–$5.4B (midpoint $5.2B, ~8% sequential growth, described as "a little above seasonal") and EPS of $1.77–$2.05, with consensus currently at $5.26B and $1.95 — sitting near the midpoint of the range. Estimate revisions have been modestly positive since the Q1 print, with the EPS consensus revised ~1.1% higher over the last 30 days, suggesting the Street is not aggressively front-running upside. The stock surged ~19% on Q1 earnings day (from $236 to $282) and has since traded up to a peak of ~$332 before pulling back to ~$291 today, underperforming SOXX (+28%) since earnings — suggesting some multiple compression as the initial euphoria fades. The key wildcard is whether the industrial broad market "tail" that woke up in Q1 continues to accelerate in Q2, and whether management signals pricing power inflecting positively in H2 2026.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus sits near the midpoint of guidance on both revenue and EPS — not a high bar, but not a low one either. Industrial revenue mix and data center growth rate are the bigger swing factors than the headline numbers.

Table 1 — Current Quarter Snapshot (Q2 2026)

Source: All actuals from Visible Alpha. Consensus as of July 21, 2026.

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History (Last 8 Quarters)

Revenue

EPS – Diluted Operating

Pattern: TXN has beaten EPS consensus in 7 of the last 8 quarters, with the only miss in Q4 2025 (a seasonally weak quarter). The magnitude of beats has been accelerating — Q1 2026’s +18.8% EPS surprise was the largest in the trailing 8 quarters, driven by industrial breadth and a discrete tax benefit.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: No formal guidance revision since Q1 earnings — Q2 guidance stands as issued. The key tone shift is management’s increasing confidence in H2 pricing power and FCF upside, contingent on industrial sustainability.

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Estimates have moved modestly higher since Q1 earnings — revenue up ~0.4% and EPS up ~0.5% for Q2 — tracking guidance rather than diverging. FY 2026 estimates have also been revised up, consistent with the stronger H1 trajectory. The FCF/share consensus of $7.82 remains slightly below management’s stated floor of “at least $8” — a gap that could close if Q2 revenue comes in above the midpoint.

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: TXN surged ~19% on Q1 earnings day but has since given back ground vs. SOXX (+28% since earnings vs. TXN +23%), suggesting the initial re-rating was multiple-driven and the stock is now consolidating as the market waits for Q2 confirmation.

TXN vs. SOXX (Semis ETF) vs. S&P 500 — Indexed to 100 at Q1 2026 Earnings (Apr 22, 2026). Source: Yahoo Finance.

TXN opened Q1 earnings day at $236.31 and closed the next day at $282.23 — a ~19% surge driven by the industrial breadth surprise and above-seasonal Q2 guide. The stock continued to rally through late May, peaking at ~$332 on June 22 (indexed: 140.6 vs. base 100). Since then, TXN has pulled back to ~$291 today (indexed: 123.3), underperforming SOXX (indexed: 128.0) but significantly outperforming SPY (indexed: 105.2). The pullback from the June peak coincided with broader semis sector volatility and the CFO transition announcement on June 2. Two analyst upgrades (Barclays to Equal Weight, BofA to Buy) were announced on April 23, the day after earnings, reflecting the positive print. The stock’s current level implies the market is pricing in a solid but not blowout Q2, with the real debate centered on H2 sustainability.

6. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The most material development since Q1 earnings is the CFO transition — a planned, internally-sourced succession that signals continuity rather than disruption. No guidance revisions or pre-announcements have been made.

• June 2, 2026 — CFO Transition Announced: Rafael Lizardi to retire August 31, 2026; Julie Knecht (25-year TI veteran, current Chief Accounting Officer) named CFO effective August 1, 2026. Internally sourced succession; Lizardi and Knecht have worked together for over a decade. Implication: Continuity of capital allocation philosophy (300mm investment, FCF/share focus, full return of FCF to shareholders). Low disruption risk.
• April 23, 2026 — Analyst Upgrades Post-Q1: Barclays upgraded TXN from Underweight to Equal Weight; BofA Securities upgraded from Neutral to Buy. Both upgrades cited the industrial recovery breadth and manufacturing cost advantage thesis. Implication: Positive sentiment reset; both firms had been skeptical of the recovery timeline.
• May 28, 2026 — CEO Bernstein Conference: CEO Haviv Ilan spoke at Bernstein 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference, discussing business outlook and strategy for analog/embedded processing markets. No material guidance revision disclosed.
• February 2026 — Silicon Labs Acquisition: TI announced plans to acquire Silicon Labs for ~$7.5B to strengthen embedded wireless connectivity portfolio. Expected close H1 2027. Implication: Not expected to impact Q2 results; integration planning ongoing. $450M synergy target (predominantly COGS-driven via Lehi internalization).
• Ongoing — Assembly & Test Capacity Tightness: Management flagged accelerating back-end internalization ahead of 2030 schedule due to external OSAT tightness. A growing portion of FY 2026 CapEx ($2–$3B) is being redirected to assembly/test. Implication: Near-term cost headwind but long-term competitive advantage.
• Ongoing — Memory Supply Risk to Personal Electronics: Management flagged memory supply constraints as a potential H2 2026 headwind to PE end equipment builds. PE is ~19% of revenue. Implication: Modest risk to H2 PE revenue if memory tightness persists.

7. Peer Commentaries — Read-Through for Q2 2026

Key Takeaway: Peer commentary from the last 60 days is broadly constructive for TXN’s Q2 — ADI reported record demand and above-seasonal industrial/automotive growth for its Q3 (calendar Q2), MCHP guided its June quarter up 11% sequentially with broad-based recovery, and ON Semi flagged an inflection with above-seasonal Q2 guidance. All three peers confirm the industrial recovery is real and broadening.

Note: All peer commentary below is forward-looking about the current reporting quarter (calendar Q2 2026 / June quarter) or reflects guidance given after their own last earnings. Backward-looking results commentary about prior quarters is excluded.

Analog Devices (ADI) — Q2 FY2026 Earnings (Reported May 20, 2026)

ADI’s Q2 FY2026 earnings (calendar Q2 2026) are the most directly relevant read-through for TXN. ADI reported record demand and guided Q3 FY2026 (calendar Q3) above seasonal, providing strong validation of the industrial recovery thesis.

• Industrial: ADI described its industrial end market as being “in a cycle of broad-based high growth,” with industrial revenue up 20% sequentially and 56% year-over-year in its Q2. All industrial sub-sectors grew sequentially and year-over-year, led by aerospace & defense, ATE, ETM, and the broad market. ADI noted these businesses are “still well below their prior cycle highs with lean channel inventories,” giving confidence in “continued strong growth in the coming quarters.” This directly validates TXN’s Q1 commentary about the broad market tail waking up and supports above-seasonal Q2 industrial growth for TXN.
• Automotive: ADI’s automotive revenue grew 8% sequentially and 2% year-over-year, with BMS solutions for EVs returning to year-over-year growth for the first time in two years. Strength came “a bit sooner than expected,” driven by a material pickup in China in the back part of the quarter, plus record performance in Europe and Japan. ADI noted “record bookings, positive book-to-bill” for Q3 and expects “above seasonal growth in the mid- to high single digits.” Positive read-through for TXN’s automotive segment.
• Data Center: ADI’s data center revenue (within communications) was up more than 90% year-over-year, driven equally by optical and power portfolios. ADI expects data center to “continue to increase and be the fastest growing sequentially” in Q3. This corroborates TXN’s data center growth trajectory (~90% YoY in Q1 2026) and supports continued strong data center revenue in Q2.
• Demand Environment: ADI CEO Vincent Roche described the customer atmosphere as one of “general calmness,” with record demand and an increasing demand book. He flagged concerns about “the steepness of the demand ramp across the industry and what that will mean going into ’27” — a caution worth monitoring for TXN’s H2 sustainability debate.
• Pricing: ADI has increased prices during 2026 to absorb inflation, with pricing actions expected to “add a couple of points to growth rate in ’26.” This is consistent with TXN’s commentary about potential H2 price increases and validates the pricing environment.
• Inventory: ADI’s channel inventory weeks declined and remained within its 6–7 week target range. Automotive customers described as “fairly lean on inventory.” Lean channel inventory is a positive read-through for TXN’s demand sustainability.

Microchip Technology (MCHP) — Q4 FY2026 Earnings (Reported May 7, 2026)

MCHP’s fiscal Q4 2026 (calendar Q1 2026) earnings provided guidance for the June quarter (calendar Q2 2026) that is directly relevant to TXN.

• Demand Recovery: MCHP guided June quarter net sales up 11% sequentially (plus or minus 1%), with the midpoint representing +35.3% year-over-year. Management attributed this to three factors: completion of distribution/customer inventory corrections, improved customer relationships driving re-engagement, and a “meaningful strengthening of end markets.” April was described as “the largest booking month in almost 4 years.” This is a strong confirmation of the broad-based recovery TXN described in Q1.
• Industrial & Automotive: MCHP expects “strong growth from data center, A&D sector, industrial and automotive end markets” in the June quarter. Automotive designs incubated over the last two years are now going into production. Consistent with TXN’s industrial and automotive recovery narrative.
• Lead Times Extending: MCHP noted lead times are increasing on many products due to substrate constraints, subcontracting capacity, and foundry constraints on multiple nodes. Customer requests for expedited shipments have “increased significantly,” pointing to very low customer inventories. This supply tightness is a positive read-through for TXN’s pricing power thesis and validates TXN’s strategy of maintaining stable lead times as a competitive advantage.
• Distribution Inventory: MCHP believes the distribution inventory correction is complete, with overall distribution inventory “somewhat lower than normal.” Distribution restocking is expected in the near term. Positive signal for TXN’s channel demand.
• Competitive Pricing Dynamics: MCHP noted competitors are implementing “large price increases,” which is helping MCHP gain share. This is relevant context for TXN’s pricing environment — if peers are raising prices, TXN’s potential H2 price increases are more credible.

ON Semiconductor (ON) — Q1 2026 Earnings (Reported May 4, 2026)

ON Semi’s Q1 2026 earnings provided Q2 2026 guidance and forward-looking commentary directly relevant to TXN’s automotive and industrial segments.

• Inflection Point: ON Semi management described a “clear improvement as the quarter progressed, with strengthening order patterns and an increase in short lead time orders,” providing confidence that “this cycle has found its low point, and we are now on a path to recovery.” Lead times stretched from ~23 weeks in Q4 to ~26 weeks in Q1, with increasing expedite requests. Confirms the demand inflection TXN described.
• Q2 2026 Guidance: ON Semi guided Q2 revenue to $1.535–$1.635B, with the core business expected to grow ~7% at the midpoint — described as “above seasonal.” This above-seasonal Q2 guide from a key automotive/industrial analog peer is a direct positive read-through for TXN.
• Automotive: ON Semi’s automotive revenue was roughly flat quarter-over-quarter and up nearly 5% year-over-year in Q1 — the first year-over-year growth after seven quarters of decline. China EV programs continue to outperform. Management noted customers are not building inventory in automotive; demand is recovering. For Q2, automotive is expected to be “roughly flat.” More cautious automotive read-through than ADI, suggesting recovery is real but gradual.
• Industrial: Industrial revenue was down 6% sequentially in Q1 but ahead of expectations, with “broad-based strength across traditional industrial business for the second consecutive quarter.” For Q2, industrial is projected to be “up mid-single-digit percentage wise.” Consistent with TXN’s industrial recovery narrative.
• Data Center (AI): ON Semi’s AI data center revenue grew more than 30% quarter-over-quarter and doubled year-over-year in Q1. For full year 2026, ON Semi now expects AI data center revenue to double year-over-year. Validates the secular data center growth trend benefiting TXN.
• H2 Outlook: Management expects the second half of 2026 to “outgrow the first half,” driven by ongoing program ramps in AI data center and automotive, particularly in China. Positive signal for TXN’s H2 sustainability debate.

Qualcomm (QCOM) — Investor Day (June 24, 2026)

QCOM’s Investor Day provided longer-term strategic commentary on industrial, automotive, and IoT markets relevant to TXN’s secular growth thesis.

• Industrial / Physical AI: QCOM described physical AI as driving “massive transformative change” in industrial enterprises and robotics, calling it a “once in a generation opportunity.” Industrial and embedded IoT revenue is up 77% from 2024 to 2026. While QCOM competes in digital/compute rather than analog, the industrial demand signal is consistent with TXN’s commentary about factory automation and robotics as leading recovery sectors.
• Automotive: QCOM has achieved “23 consecutive year-over-year double-digit quarters of growth” in automotive and expects to “exit FY 2026 at $6 billion in annualized revenue.” The automotive content growth story (cockpit, ADAS, connectivity) is a secular tailwind that benefits TXN’s analog content in vehicles.
• Memory Supply Risk: QCOM noted the mobile market is “dealing with the uncertainty of the memory situation” — consistent with TXN’s Q1 warning about memory supply constraints as a potential H2 headwind to personal electronics builds. This is a risk to monitor for TXN’s PE segment (~19% of revenue).

8. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: All insider transactions since Q1 earnings are predominantly option exercises paired with same-day sales — a standard compensation-driven pattern with no informational signal. The one exception worth flagging is Director Martin Craighead’s discretionary sale of 10,000 shares on May 28 near the stock’s post-earnings peak, though this is not alarming given the magnitude of the price move.

No open-market purchases were recorded in the period. The overwhelming majority of transactions are option exercise + same-day sale pairs, which are compensation-driven and carry no informational signal. The Craighead discretionary sale of 10,000 shares near the stock’s post-earnings peak is the only transaction worth flagging, though it is not unusual for a director to take profits after a significant price move.