Company | Texas Instruments Incorporated |
Ticker | TXN (Nasdaq) |
Reporting Period | Q2 2026 (quarter ending June 30, 2026) |
Earnings Date | July 22, 2026 — after U.S. market close (4:30 PM ET conference call) |
Prepared | July 21, 2026 |
Primary Valuation Metric | EV/EBITDA (NTM 22.5x) | P/E (NTM 32.9x) | P/FCF (NTM 31.9x) |
Key Takeaway: Setup leans toward a beat — consensus is a manageable bar, industrial momentum is broadening, and data center is accelerating — but the stock has already priced in significant good news, leaving the Q3 guide and pricing commentary as the real swing factors.
Heading into Q2 2026, the bar for TXN is achievable but not low: consensus revenue of ~$5.26B sits near the midpoint of the $5.0–$5.4B guidance range, implying ~17% YoY growth, and the company confirmed at the Bernstein conference on May 28 that it was "on plan" with demand tracking "a little different" and "more broad" than prior cycles. Industrial is the key driver — still 15% below its 2022 peak but recovering rapidly across all sectors, regions, and customer sizes, with factory automation and aerospace & defense called out as leading sub-sectors; CEO Haviv Ilan noted customers are not yet building inventory, suggesting the recovery is consumption-driven and therefore more durable. Data center is the upside wildcard: running at a $550–600M quarterly run rate (12% of Q1 revenue, up from 9% in FY2025), growing ~90% YoY, and management expects application-specific socket wins to contribute more in H2 2026 and into 2027. Estimate revisions have moved sharply higher since the Q1 print — Q2 EPS consensus jumped from ~$1.38 to ~$1.95 — and the stock surged ~40% from pre-Q1 levels, meaning the multiple has expanded meaningfully and the stock is pricing in continued execution. The single biggest wildcard is the Q3 guidance tone: if management signals pricing increases materializing in H2 (as flagged at Bernstein) and industrial momentum sustaining, the stock can hold its premium; if the Q3 guide disappoints or personal electronics softness (flagged as a memory-supply risk) is more pronounced than expected, the elevated multiple leaves limited cushion.
Key Takeaway: Consensus is a manageable but not easy bar — revenue at ~$5.26B sits near the guidance midpoint, and the bigger swing factor is gross margin, where the 75–85% incremental fall-through framework and the final quarter of 6-inch fab overhead removal should provide a tailwind. Industrial revenue is the most watched line.
KPI | Q1 2026 Actual (Last Quarter) | Q2 2025 Actual (Prior Year Period) | Q2 2026 Consensus Estimate | YoY Change | Q2 2026 Guidance | Consensus vs. Guidance Midpoint |
Revenue ($B) | $4.825B | $4.448B | $5.262B | +18.3% | $5.0B – $5.4B (mid: $5.2B) | +1.2% above mid |
EPS — Diluted Operating ($) | $1.643 | $1.420 | $1.954 | +37.6% | $1.77 – $2.05 (mid: $1.91) | +2.3% above mid |
Gross Profit ($B) | $2.799B | $2.575B | $3.132B | +21.6% | N/A (implied ~59.6% GM%) | N/A |
Operating Income — Operating ($B) | $1.825B | $1.563B | $2.143B | +37.1% | N/A | N/A |
Industrial Revenue ($B) | $1.767B | $1.540B | $1.927B | +25.1% | N/A (segment) | N/A |
Automotive Revenue ($B) | $1.447B | $1.377B | $1.488B | +8.1% | N/A (segment) | N/A |
Data Center Revenue ($B) | $0.564B | $0.367B | $0.666B | +81.4% | N/A (segment) | N/A |
Free Cash Flow per Share ($) | $0.923 | $0.609 | $1.748 | +186.9% | N/A | N/A |
Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Revenue, EPS — Diluted — Operating, Gross Profit, Operating Income — Operating, Industrial Revenue, Automotive Revenue, Data Center Revenue, Free Cash Flow per Share all sourced from Visible Alpha (https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/TXN/NMV/IS and /RV and /CF). Q2 2026 guidance from TXN Q1 2026 Earnings Call (April 22, 2026). Gross margin % implied from Street consensus per public news digest (July 17, 2026).
Quarter | Revenue Reported ($B) | Revenue Consensus ($B) | Rev Surprise % | Op. EPS Reported ($) | Op. EPS Consensus ($) | EPS Surprise % | Result |
Q1 2026 | $4.825B | $4.528B | +6.6% | $1.643 | $1.384 | +18.7% | Beat |
Q4 2025 | $4.423B | $4.459B | −0.8% | $1.299 | $1.317 | −1.4% | Miss |
Q3 2025 | $4.742B | $4.654B | +1.9% | $1.554 | $1.517 | +2.4% | Beat |
Q2 2025 | $4.448B | $4.362B | +2.0% | $1.420 | $1.377 | +3.1% | Beat |
Q1 2025 | $4.069B | $3.909B | +4.1% | $1.287 | $1.090 | +18.1% | Beat |
Q4 2024 | $4.007B | $3.877B | +3.4% | $1.311 | $1.222 | +7.3% | Beat |
Q3 2024 | $4.151B | $4.133B | +0.4% | $1.480 | $1.398 | +5.9% | Beat |
Q2 2024 | N/A — pre-window | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Pattern: TXN has beaten revenue consensus in 6 of the last 7 reported quarters, with the sole miss in Q4 2025 (a modest −0.8% shortfall); EPS beats have been consistent and often large, with Q1 2026 and Q1 2025 both delivering ~18%+ upside — suggesting management guides conservatively and the bar is typically beatable when demand is healthy. Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.
Key Takeaway: Guidance is unchanged since the Q1 2026 earnings call; no post-earnings 8-K or pre-announcement has altered the range. The tone, however, has shifted more constructive — CEO Ilan confirmed at Bernstein (May 28) that Q2 is tracking "on plan" with demand breadth broadening, and flagged potential H2 price increases as a new positive.
Metric | Initial Guidance (Q1 2026 Earnings Call — Apr 22, 2026) | Revised Guidance | Current Consensus | Note |
Revenue | $5.0B – $5.4B | — (unchanged) | $5.262B | CEO confirmed "on plan" at Bernstein (May 28, 2026); demand described as "more broad" across regions and markets |
EPS — Diluted (GAAP) | $1.77 – $2.05 | — (unchanged) | $1.954 (Operating) | Includes ~13% effective tax rate assumption; no discrete tax benefit flagged for Q2 |
Effective Tax Rate | ~13% | — (unchanged) | ~13% (implied) | Q1 2026 included a modest discrete tax benefit not in original guidance; Q2 guidance does not assume a repeat |
Pricing Tone | Flat H1; potential increases H2 | — (unchanged) | N/A (qualitative) | ↑ More constructive at Bernstein (May 28): "market prices are going higher" and "prices could be a little higher" in H2; supply-demand mismatch emerging on analog side |
Industrial Demand | Continued acceleration; "above seasonal" Q2 guide | — (unchanged) | N/A (qualitative) | ↑ Bernstein (May 28): factory automation/robotics "biggest excitement"; customers resuming CapEx decisions after tariff-related pause; still 15% below 2022 peak |
Data Center | Secular growth; app-specific sockets ramping H2 2026–2027 | — (unchanged) | $0.666B Q2 consensus | ↑ Bernstein (May 28): run rate "above $2B annualized"; TAM growing from $7.5B (2025) to $12.5B (2026); data center on track to become TI’s 3rd-largest market |
CFO Transition | N/A (not announced at Q1 call) | Julie Knecht named CFO, effective Aug 1, 2026 | N/A | Announced June 2, 2026; Rafael Lizardi retiring after 25 years; Knecht is internal promotion (25+ years at TI, former Chief Accounting Officer); continuity of capital allocation philosophy emphasized |
Key Takeaway: Estimates have moved sharply higher since the Q1 2026 print — Q2 revenue consensus is up ~3.5% and Q2 operating EPS is up ~40% from the post-Q1 baseline — tracking well above the initial guidance midpoint. The revision gap is a cushion, not a risk, as long as industrial momentum holds; the FY2026 estimate trajectory is the most important signal for the stock.
KPI (Period) | Estimate ~Apr 29, 2026 (Post-Q1 Baseline) | Current Consensus | Estimate Δ (%) | Initial Guidance (Q1 Call) | Current Guidance | Guidance Δ | Consensus vs. Guidance Mid (%) |
Revenue — Q2 2026 | $5.240B | $5.262B | +0.4% | $5.0B – $5.4B | Unchanged | — | +1.2% above mid |
Op. EPS — Q2 2026 | $1.943 | $1.954 | +0.6% | $1.77 – $2.05 | Unchanged | — | +2.3% above mid |
Revenue — FY2026 | $21.016B | $21.171B | +0.7% | N/A (full-year) | N/A | — | N/A |
Op. EPS — FY2026 | $7.829 | $7.916 | +1.1% | N/A (full-year) | N/A | — | N/A |
Gross Profit — Q2 2026 | $3.115B | $3.132B | +0.5% | N/A | N/A | — | N/A |
FCF/Share — Q2 2026 | $1.752B | $1.748 | −0.2% | N/A | N/A | — | N/A |
Industrial Rev — Q2 2026 | $1.915B | $1.927B | +0.6% | N/A | N/A | — | N/A |
Data Center Rev — Q2 2026 | $0.657B | $0.666B | +1.4% | N/A | N/A | — | N/A |
Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Post-Q1 baseline uses consensus as of April 29, 2026 (approximately 5 trading days after the April 22, 2026 earnings release). Current consensus as of July 21, 2026. All figures from Visible Alpha (https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/TXN/NMV/IS, /RV, /CF).
Estimates have been remarkably stable since the post-Q1 reset — Q2 revenue and EPS are essentially unchanged from the initial post-print baseline, suggesting the Street has high conviction in the guidance range and is not chasing further upside ahead of the print. The FY2026 revenue and EPS estimates have drifted modestly higher (+0.7% and +1.1% respectively), consistent with the CEO’s Bernstein commentary that Q2 is tracking on plan. The key question for the stock is whether Q3 guidance implies further acceleration or a pause.
Key Takeaway: The +52% six-month rally is predominantly multiple expansion (+16% on EV/EBITDA) layered on top of strong estimate revisions — the stock has re-rated from a trough valuation to a premium, and the last month’s −9.8% pullback reflects some digestion of that re-rating rather than a fundamental deterioration.
Since the Q1 2026 earnings release on April 22, 2026, TXN surged sharply on the print (double-digit after-hours gains) and continued to appreciate through late May/early June before pulling back approximately 10% over the past month. The six-month return of +52% reflects both a meaningful upward revision to estimates (Q2 EPS consensus moved from ~$1.38 pre-Q1 to ~$1.95 currently) and significant multiple expansion — EV/EBITDA expanded from ~19.4x to ~22.5x over six months (+16%), and P/FCF compressed from ~30x to ~31.9x as FCF estimates rose faster than the stock. Over the trailing 12 months, the stock is up +34.5% with EV/EBITDA essentially flat (−2.4%), meaning the full-year gain was almost entirely earnings-driven. The recent one-month pullback of −9.8% has been accompanied by multiple contraction (−7.1% on EV/EBITDA), suggesting the market is pausing to see whether Q2 results and Q3 guidance justify the elevated valuation.
Sector ETF used: SOXX (iShares Semiconductor ETF) — appropriate for TXN’s analog/embedded semiconductor sub-sector.
Horizon | TXN Price Return | EV/EBITDA at Start | EV/EBITDA Now | Multiple Δ | Driver |
1 Month | −9.8% | 24.2x | 22.5x | −7.1% | Multiple contraction / digestion |
3 Months | +24.7% | 21.6x | 22.5x | +4.4% | Earnings-driven + modest re-rating |
6 Months | +52.1% | 19.4x | 22.5x | +16.3% | Significant multiple expansion + estimate revisions |
12 Months | +34.5% | 23.1x | 22.5x | −2.4% | Predominantly earnings-driven |
Source: Stock performance decomposition data from Implied platform. NTM EV/EBITDA used as primary valuation metric (most applicable for TXN’s capital-intensive semiconductor manufacturing model). Current NTM EV/EBITDA: 22.5x; P/E: 32.9x; P/FCF: 31.9x.
EPS Revision Momentum (trailing 12 months): Q2 2026 operating EPS consensus moved from ~$1.47 (Aug–Dec 2025) to ~$1.56 (Jan–Mar 2026) to ~$1.93 (Apr 2026 post-Q1 print) to ~$1.94 (current), reflecting a sharp upward reset after the Q1 beat and stable expectations since. The stock price tracked this revision trajectory closely — from ~$161 in October 2025 to ~$281 post-Q1 to ~$291 currently. Source: TXN Earnings and Estimate Revision Momentum data.
Key Takeaway: The CFO transition (effective August 1) is the most significant post-Q1 corporate development, but it is continuity-driven and unlikely to alter capital allocation strategy. The Bernstein conference confirmation that Q2 is "on plan" is the most important demand signal since the Q1 print.
Key Takeaway: All post-Q1 insider activity is open-market sales — no buys. The volume is notable (19 transactions across executives and directors, including CEO Ilan selling 20,000 shares at elevated prices), but the cluster of April 24 sales immediately post-earnings is consistent with a coordinated RSU vesting/tax event rather than discretionary bearish signaling. No 10b5-1 plans were flagged in the filings.
Name | Title | Transaction Type | Shares | Date | Note |
Ilan Haviv | Chairman, President & CEO | Open Market Sale | 20,000 | May 4, 2026 | Discretionary; sold at elevated post-Q1 prices; retains 204,339 shares |
Lizardi Rafael R | Sr. VP & CFO | Open Market Sale | 47,734 | May 14, 2026 | Largest single sale in the period; consistent with pre-retirement liquidity; retains 85,485 shares |
Lizardi Rafael R | Sr. VP & CFO | Open Market Sale | 40,541 | Apr 24, 2026 | Part of coordinated post-earnings vesting cluster (Apr 24); pre-retirement liquidity |
Yunus Mohammad | Sr. Vice President | Open Market Sale | 51,098 | Apr 29, 2026 | Largest share count sold by any single insider in the period; retains 52,856 shares |
Roberts Mark T. | Sr. Vice President | Open Market Sale | 28,080 | Apr 30, 2026 | Post-earnings sale; retains 53,809 shares |
Ron Amichai | Sr. Vice President | Open Market Sale | 18,365 | Apr 24, 2026 | Part of coordinated Apr 24 vesting cluster; retains 81,085 shares |
Leonard Shanon J | Sr. Vice President | Open Market Sale | 18,189 | Apr 24, 2026 | Part of coordinated Apr 24 vesting cluster; second sale of 4,963 shares on May 11 |
Gary Mark | Sr. Vice President | Open Market Sale | 13,689 | Apr 30, 2026 | Post-earnings sale; retains 45,547 shares |
Blinn Mark A | Director | Open Market Sale | 15,000 | Apr 24, 2026 | Indirect (by trust); part of Apr 24 cluster; retains only 46 shares directly |
Craighead Martin S | Director | Open Market Sale | 10,000 | May 28, 2026 | Latest sale in the period; discretionary; retains 14,359 shares |
Knecht Julie C. | VP & Chief Accounting Officer (CFO-elect) | Open Market Sale | 9,956 | May 1, 2026 | Sold shortly after Q1 earnings; retains 9,120 shares; now named CFO effective Aug 1 |
Kane Katharine | SVP & General Counsel | Open Market Sale | 6,125 | Apr 27, 2026 | Part of post-earnings cluster; retains 25,212 shares |
Cox Carrie Smith | Director | Open Market Sale | 8,838 | May 13, 2026 | Discretionary; retains 37,626 shares |
Bahai Ahmad | Sr. Vice President | Open Market Sale | 3,660 + 5,000 | Apr 27 & May 14, 2026 | Two separate sales; retains 42,519 shares |
Witzsche Christine | Sr. Vice President | Open Market Sale | 3,625 | Apr 24, 2026 | Part of Apr 24 vesting cluster; retains 25,617 shares |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings via Insider Transaction Data (https://www.sec.gov/). All transactions are open-market sales (code S / disposition D). No open-market purchases were filed in the period. No 10b5-1 plan flags (overall_10b5 = False) on any transaction. The April 24 cluster (9 insiders selling on the same day) is consistent with a coordinated RSU vesting event post-earnings, which is a routine and non-discretionary pattern. The CEO’s May 4 sale and the CFO’s May 14 sale are more discretionary in nature but occur at elevated post-Q1 prices and are not unusual in size relative to retained holdings.
Key Takeaway: Peer commentary from May–June 2026 is broadly constructive for TXN’s Q2 setup — ADI, NXPI, ON, STM, and MCHP all flagged improving demand visibility, extending lead times, lean channel inventories, and strong data center growth. The most important read-throughs are ADI’s "record quarter" guidance and NXPI’s "book-to-bill solidly above 1" signal, both pointing to a healthy analog demand environment heading into TXN’s print.
Methodology: Only commentary from May 22 – July 21, 2026 that addresses the current calendar Q2 2026 (April–June) period or provides a contemporaneous demand/pricing/inventory update is included below. Prior-quarter result commentary (e.g., Q1 2026 earnings call results from peers) is excluded. Sources: conference transcripts from Bank of America Global Technology Conference (June 2–3, 2026), BNP Paribas Exane CEO Conference (June 2, 2026), TD Cowen TMT Conference (May 27–28, 2026), and Evercore TMT Conference (June 3, 2026).
Directional Signal: Strongly Positive
Directional Signal: Positive
Directional Signal: Positive on Industrial & Data Center; Negative on Consumer
Directional Signal: Mixed-to-Positive — Inventory Cycle Normalizing, Innovation-Driven Growth Emerging
Directional Signal: Positive on Data Center & Industrial; Mixed on Automotive
Peer | Source / Date | Industrial | Automotive | Data Center | Consumer / PE | Pricing | Inventory / Supply |
ADI | BofA Tech Conf, Jun 2 | ↑ Strong | ↑ Record levels | ↑ Record quarter | N/A | ↑ First price increase | Lean channel (6–7 wks) |
NXPI | TD Cowen TMT, May 27 | N/A | ↑ Inventory digested | ↑ $200M→$500M | N/A | ↑ H2 increases planned | B/B > 1; lead times stretching |
STM | BNP Exane CEO Conf, Jun 2 | ↑ +30% growth | ↑ HSD–LDD growth | ↑ $500M→$1B | ↓ Soft market | N/A | OSAT packaging risk flagged |
MCHP | BofA / TD Cowen / Evercore, Jun 2–3 & May 28 | ↑ Innovation-driven | → Growing, no restock yet | ↑ +65% YoY | N/A | ↑ H2 increases planned | Inventory normalizing; OSAT crowded by AI |
ON | BofA Tech Conf, Jun 3 | ↑ AI halo effect | → Ship-to-demand, no recovery yet | ↑ Doubling YoY | N/A | ↑ Raised Apr 1 | Utilization 68%→77%; backlog building |
Overall Peer Read-Through Verdict: The weight of peer evidence from May–June 2026 is constructive for TXN’s Q2 print. The most actionable signals are: (1) ADI guiding a second consecutive record quarter — the strongest analog demand read-through available; (2) NXPI’s book-to-bill solidly above 1 with building backlog — a leading indicator of sustained demand; (3) STM doubling its data center revenue guidance — confirms the structural AI infrastructure build-out is broad-based; and (4) industry-wide pricing increases underway at ADI, NXPI, MCHP, and ON — consistent with TXN’s own H2 pricing optionality. The one consistent negative read-through is STM’s confirmation that the consumer/personal electronics market is "pretty soft," which is a watch item for TXN’s ~20% PE revenue exposure. Sources: Bank of America Global Technology Conference transcripts (June 2–3, 2026); BNP Paribas Exane CEO Conference transcript (June 2, 2026); TD Cowen TMT Conference transcript (May 27, 2026); Evercore TMT Conference transcript (June 3, 2026).