UDR Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-27

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
UDR Report FFOA / share (Q2'26) IN-LINE pred ~$0.63 vs. cons $0.63 HIGH
UDR Report Same-store revenue growth (Q2'26 YoY) IN-LINE pred ~+1.8% vs. cons ~+1.5% MEDIUM
UDR Report Same-store NOI growth (Q2'26 YoY) IN-LINE pred ~+0.6% vs. cons ~+0.4% MEDIUM
UDR Guide FY26 FFOA / share guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$2.52 midpoint vs. cons $2.52 (FY2026) MEDIUM
UDR Guide FY26 same-store revenue growth guidance BETTER guide ~+1.5% midpoint vs. cons ~+1.25% (FY2026) LOW
UDR Guide FY26 same-store NOI growth guidance UNCHANGED guide ~+0.25% midpoint vs. cons ~+0.125% (FY2026) LOW
UDR Guide Dispositions / buyback (capital recycling) pace UNKNOWN guide ~$300-400M add'l dispo + buybacks vs. cons ~$300M (FY2026 sources/uses) LOW
UDR Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -1.0% MEDIUM
UDR Return 5-day cumulative residual -2.0% (FADE) De-risked, in-line print (FFOA ~$0.63) into a stock that already rallied ~17% off the March low and has stalled below its early-July high (~$41.24 -> $39.60), so limited room for upside surprise. A held (not raised) full-year guide plus a FY SS NOI midpoint of essentially zero means growth is coming from capital allocation, not organic NOI — out-period math gives estimates no reason to rise. Deepening Sunbelt softness (FL/Nashville) and narrowing buyback accretion (stock now well above the ~$36 avg repurchase price) tilt revisions flat-to-down, so an initial muted/negative reaction fades further rather than reverses. LOW