| UDR |
Report |
FFOA per diluted share (Q2 2026) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$0.63 vs. cons $0.63 |
HIGH |
| UDR |
Report |
Same-Store Revenue Growth YoY (Q2 2026) |
MISS |
pred ~1.0% vs. cons 1.3% |
MEDIUM |
| UDR |
Report |
Blended Lease Rate Growth (new+renewal, Q2 2026) |
MISS |
pred ~1.3% vs. cons 1.7% |
MEDIUM |
| UDR |
Guide |
FY2026 FFOA per share guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$2.52 vs. cons $2.53 (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| UDR |
Guide |
FY2026 Same-Store Revenue growth guidance |
LOWER |
guide ~1.25% vs. cons 1.5% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| UDR |
Guide |
FY2026 Same-Store NOI growth guidance |
LOWER |
guide ~0.13% vs. cons 0.5% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| UDR |
Guide |
Cumulative share repurchases since Sep-2025 (buyback pace commentary) |
BETTER |
guide ~$350M vs. cons $300M (FY2026, cumulative through Q2 print) |
LOW |
| UDR |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-1.0% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| UDR |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-2.2% (FADE) |
Q2 FFOA should print roughly in-line with the $0.62-0.64 guide/consensus, but UDR's Q1 same-store NOI already ran negative YoY (-0.8%) with Southeast/Southwest/Mid-Atlantic dragging, and preview flagged Sunbelt (FL/Nashville) deteriorating further into April. Peers AVB and EQR both beat and raised full-year same-store guidance on San Francisco strength and easing supply, resetting sector expectations higher; if UDR merely reaffirms (rather than raises) its FY26 SS revenue/NOI guide - which the Q1 trajectory and Sunbelt commentary suggest is likely - it will read as a relative disappointment against the newly-raised peer bar. UDR shares have already rallied ~8-10% off March lows into the print, front-running sector optimism, so a reaffirm-only outcome plus soft same-store prints likely triggers sell-side trims to 2H26 NOI/FFOA estimates over the following days (implicit cut via unchanged full-year ranges despite peer raises), producing a fade rather than follow-through, tempered by continued buyback/disposition arbitrage and monthly-dividend narrative providing some support against a sharper decline. |
MEDIUM |