{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FFOA per diluted share (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$0.63 vs. cons $0.63",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Same-Store Revenue Growth YoY (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~1.0% vs. cons 1.3%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Blended Lease Rate Growth (new+renewal, Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~1.3% vs. cons 1.7%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 FFOA per share guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$2.52 vs. cons $2.53 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Same-Store Revenue growth guidance",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~1.25% vs. cons 1.5% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Same-Store NOI growth guidance",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~0.13% vs. cons 0.5% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Cumulative share repurchases since Sep-2025 (buyback pace commentary)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$350M vs. cons $300M (FY2026, cumulative through Q2 print)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -1.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -2.2,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Q2 FFOA should print roughly in-line with the $0.62-0.64 guide/consensus, but UDR's Q1 same-store NOI already ran negative YoY (-0.8%) with Southeast/Southwest/Mid-Atlantic dragging, and preview flagged Sunbelt (FL/Nashville) deteriorating further into April. Peers AVB and EQR both beat and raised full-year same-store guidance on San Francisco strength and easing supply, resetting sector expectations higher; if UDR merely reaffirms (rather than raises) its FY26 SS revenue/NOI guide - which the Q1 trajectory and Sunbelt commentary suggest is likely - it will read as a relative disappointment against the newly-raised peer bar. UDR shares have already rallied ~8-10% off March lows into the print, front-running sector optimism, so a reaffirm-only outcome plus soft same-store prints likely triggers sell-side trims to 2H26 NOI/FFOA estimates over the following days (implicit cut via unchanged full-year ranges despite peer raises), producing a fade rather than follow-through, tempered by continued buyback/disposition arbitrage and monthly-dividend narrative providing some support against a sharper decline.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}