UHS Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-27

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
UHS Report Adjusted EPS (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$6.00 vs. cons $5.66 HIGH
UHS Report Adjusted EBITDA net of NCI (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$725M vs. cons ~$680M HIGH
UHS Report Same-facility acute adjusted admissions (YoY) BEAT pred ~+3.5% vs. cons +2.8% MEDIUM
UHS Guide FY2026 Adjusted EPS guidance BETTER guide raised to ~$24.0 mid vs. cons ~$23.5 (FY2026) MEDIUM
UHS Guide FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA net of NCI guidance BETTER guide ~$2.75B mid vs. prior/cons ~$2.71B (FY2026) MEDIUM
UHS Guide Florida DPP / Medicaid supplemental payment benefit BETTER pred ~$50M+ in-period benefit vs. $0 in prior guidance (Q2/FY2026) MEDIUM
UHS Guide Behavioral Health operating income (Q2'26) UNKNOWN pred ~$390M vs. cons $392.9M (Q2'26) LOW
UHS Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +5.0% MEDIUM
UHS Return 5-day cumulative residual +8.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) CMS approved the Florida DPP during Q2 (HCA booked ~$400M retro benefit), giving UHS an in-period supplemental catch-up not in guidance, and peers printed strong acute volumes with guidance raises (THC +17.5%, HCA raised). Against a stock de-rated ~a third from highs with defensive positioning, a beat + guidance raise should drive genuine upward FY revisions and multiple re-rating rather than a one-off pop. Modest fade risk exists because part of the beat is the retroactive DPP one-timer and H2 still carries ACA-exchange erosion and California staffing costs, so net follow-through is positive but restrained. MEDIUM