{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$6.00 vs. cons $5.66",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EBITDA net of NCI (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$725M vs. cons ~$680M",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Same-facility acute adjusted admissions (YoY)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~+3.5% vs. cons +2.8%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adjusted EPS guidance",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide raised to ~$24.0 mid vs. cons ~$23.5 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA net of NCI guidance",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$2.75B mid vs. prior/cons ~$2.71B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Florida DPP / Medicaid supplemental payment benefit",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "pred ~$50M+ in-period benefit vs. $0 in prior guidance (Q2/FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Behavioral Health operating income (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "pred ~$390M vs. cons $392.9M (Q2'26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 5.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 8.0,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "CMS approved the Florida DPP during Q2 (HCA booked ~$400M retro benefit), giving UHS an in-period supplemental catch-up not in guidance, and peers printed strong acute volumes with guidance raises (THC +17.5%, HCA raised). Against a stock de-rated ~a third from highs with defensive positioning, a beat + guidance raise should drive genuine upward FY revisions and multiple re-rating rather than a one-off pop. Modest fade risk exists because part of the beat is the retroactive DPP one-timer and H2 still carries ACA-exchange erosion and California staffing costs, so net follow-through is positive but restrained.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}