| UNP |
Report |
Adjusted EPS (Q2'26) |
BEAT |
pred ~$3.20 vs. cons $3.14 |
MEDIUM |
| UNP |
Report |
Revenue (Q2'26) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$6.62B vs. cons $6.60B |
MEDIUM |
| UNP |
Report |
Adjusted Operating Ratio (Q2'26) |
MISS |
pred ~59.8% vs. cons 59.3% (higher OR = worse, fuel headwind) |
MEDIUM |
| UNP |
Guide |
FY2026 reported EPS growth (reaffirm) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~mid-single-digit (~+5%) vs. cons +7.6% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| UNP |
Guide |
FY2026 Operating Ratio improvement |
UNKNOWN |
guide ~full-year OR improvement vs. cons ~60 bps improvement (FY2026); fuel spike clouds reaffirmation |
LOW |
| UNP |
Guide |
NS merger / STB timing (approval) |
UNKNOWN |
guide ~Q2 2027 approval vs. cons ~Q2 2027 (2027); July 27 supplemental filing is next checkpoint |
MEDIUM |
| UNP |
Guide |
FY2026 capex |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$3.3B vs. cons ~$3.3B (FY2026) |
HIGH |
| UNP |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-1.5% |
— |
LOW |
| UNP |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-2.5% (FADE) |
Stock rallied ~26% YTD to ~$292 (peaked $301 on 7/17, already fading) and trades on rich multiples driven by the NS merger, not the P&L. A modest EPS beat is largely priced; the fuel-driven OR pressure and buyback pause cap upside, while reaffirmed (conservative, reported-basis) guidance offers no new lift. Absent a fresh positive STB catalyst before the ~July 27 supplemental filing, sell-the-news dynamics and downward out-period OR revisions math should extend the day-1 dip through the week. |
LOW |