{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$3.20 vs. cons $3.14",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Revenue (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$6.62B vs. cons $6.60B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted Operating Ratio (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~59.8% vs. cons 59.3% (higher OR = worse, fuel headwind)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 reported EPS growth (reaffirm)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~mid-single-digit (~+5%) vs. cons +7.6% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Operating Ratio improvement",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide ~full-year OR improvement vs. cons ~60 bps improvement (FY2026); fuel spike clouds reaffirmation",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "NS merger / STB timing (approval)",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide ~Q2 2027 approval vs. cons ~Q2 2027 (2027); July 27 supplemental filing is next checkpoint",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 capex",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$3.3B vs. cons ~$3.3B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -1.5,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": -2.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Stock rallied ~26% YTD to ~$292 (peaked $301 on 7/17, already fading) and trades on rich multiples driven by the NS merger, not the P&L. A modest EPS beat is largely priced; the fuel-driven OR pressure and buyback pause cap upside, while reaffirmed (conservative, reported-basis) guidance offers no new lift. Absent a fresh positive STB catalyst before the ~July 27 supplemental filing, sell-the-news dynamics and downward out-period OR revisions math should extend the day-1 dip through the week.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}