| UNP |
Report |
Adjusted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$3.22 vs. cons $3.17 |
MEDIUM |
| UNP |
Report |
Operating Ratio |
MISS |
pred ~59.3% vs. cons 58.7% (higher/worse OR) |
MEDIUM |
| UNP |
Report |
Total Operating Revenue |
BEAT |
pred ~$6.68B vs. cons $6.62B |
MEDIUM |
| UNP |
Guide |
FY2026 EPS growth guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~mid-single-digit reported EPS growth vs. cons mid-single-digit growth (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| UNP |
Guide |
FY2026 Operating Ratio improvement |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~continued OR improvement (~50-100bps) vs. cons ~75bps improvement (FY2026) |
LOW |
| UNP |
Guide |
Fuel price assumption |
LOWER |
guide ~$3.90-4.10/gal updated assumption vs. cons/original $2.35/gal (FY2026, i.e. a bigger headwind than originally guided) |
MEDIUM |
| UNP |
Guide |
NS merger timeline/STB commentary |
UNKNOWN |
guide ~STB decision still expected Q2 2027 vs. cons expectation of Q2 2027 (post July 27, 2026 supplemental filing deadline) |
LOW |
| UNP |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+0.8% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| UNP |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-0.7% (FADE) |
Headline EPS/revenue beat likely driven by pricing/mix rather than volume, with fuel cost headwind pressuring OR exactly as flagged last quarter; any OR miss or cautious fuel/cost commentary will pull down out-quarter estimates even after a top-line beat. Additionally, the stock has run up ~25%+ YTD to near all-time highs, raising the bar for follow-through, and the STB supplemental-information deadline (July 27) sits just 4 days after the print, keeping merger-related uncertainty elevated and likely capping/reversing any initial pop as investors refocus on regulatory risk rather than the quarter itself. |
LOW |