UNP Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-23

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
UNP Report Adjusted EPS MISS pred ~$3.17 vs. cons $3.22 MEDIUM
UNP Report Operating revenue BEAT pred ~$6.72B vs. cons $6.64B MEDIUM
UNP Report Adjusted operating ratio MISS pred ~60.1% vs. cons 59.4% MEDIUM
UNP Guide Reported EPS growth LOWER guide ~5.0% vs. cons 6.5% (FY2026) MEDIUM
UNP Guide Operating-ratio improvement LOWER guide ~10 bps vs. cons 40 bps (FY2026) LOW
UNP Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -3.4% MEDIUM
UNP Return 5-day cumulative residual -5.1% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) A revenue beat driven partly by fuel surcharges is unlikely to offset a ~70 bps operating-ratio miss; maintaining ~5.0% EPS growth versus 6.5% consensus implies second-half estimates decline after the print. MEDIUM