UNP Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-23

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
UNP Report Adjusted diluted EPS IN-LINE pred ~$3.36 vs. cons $3.34 MEDIUM
UNP Report Freight revenue excluding fuel surcharge growth BEAT pred ~4.6% vs. cons 3.2% MEDIUM
UNP Report Adjusted operating ratio MISS pred ~60.1% vs. cons 59.3% HIGH
UNP Guide FY2026 reported EPS growth outlook UNCHANGED guide ~5.0% vs. cons 5.0% (FY2026) MEDIUM
UNP Guide FY2026 operating-ratio improvement outlook LOWER guide ~10 bps improvement vs. cons 20 bps improvement (FY2026) MEDIUM
UNP Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -2.8% MEDIUM
UNP Return 5-day cumulative residual -4.2% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Core freight growth should beat, but the ~80-bp adjusted-OR miss and a lower implied FY2026 margin-improvement cadence shift more of the earnings burden to 2H; that creates modest out-period EPS revision risk despite an in-line quarterly EPS result. MEDIUM