UNP Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-23

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
UNP Report Adj. Operating EPS (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$3.32 vs. cons $3.23 MEDIUM
UNP Report Adj. Operating Ratio (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~58.7% vs. cons 59.19% MEDIUM
UNP Report Total Operating Revenue (Q2 2026) IN-LINE pred ~$6.75B vs. cons $6.70B MEDIUM
UNP Guide FY 2026 Adj. EPS (FY 2026) LOWER guide mid-single digit (~$12.35 midpoint) vs. cons $12.71 HIGH
UNP Guide FY 2026 Adj. OR (FY 2026) UNCHANGED reaffirm OR improvement vs. cons 58.97% HIGH
UNP Guide Volume/Demand Tone (qualitative) BETTER upgrade from muted to improving vs. prior muted MEDIUM
UNP Guide Merger/STB (qualitative) UNCHANGED reaffirm mid-2027 close; supplemental on track HIGH
UNP Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -1.5% MEDIUM
UNP Return 5-day cumulative residual -3.0% (FADE) FADE — formal guidance reaffirmation removes upward revision catalyst; sell-side models flat; short-interest bid limits but does not reverse the fade MEDIUM