Earnings Date: July 23, 2026 | Prepared: July 22, 2026 | Reporting Period: Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026) | Sector ETF Reference: IYT (iShares Transportation Average ETF)
Key Takeaway: Setup is constructive — the bar is achievable and the biggest swing factor is whether fuel headwinds and coal weakness are offset by intermodal and industrial volume upside, with the NS merger timeline providing an asymmetric wildcard.
Heading into Q2 2026 earnings, consensus sits at $3.23 operating EPS and $6.70B in revenue — a bar that looks achievable but not easy given the fuel and coal headwinds management flagged at Q1. The company entered the quarter with volumes running approximately 168,000 railcars per week vs. 162,000 a year ago (per CEO Jim Vena at the May 21 RBC conference), and CFO Jennifer Hamann confirmed at the May 20 Wolfe conference that quarter-to-date volumes were up ~1% overall, with industrial chemicals and plastics up ~6% and metals/minerals up ~5%, partially offset by coal down ~14% YoY and international intermodal still under pressure. Fuel was the most explicit headwind flagged by management — diesel was running $4.00–$4.25/gallon in April–May vs. the original $2.35/gallon full-year estimate, creating a meaningful operating ratio drag; however, CSX's Q2 print (reported today, July 22) showed that fuel surcharge revenue more than offset the cost headwind at the revenue line, and JBHT's record intermodal quarter (+10% YoY) confirms the truck-to-rail conversion tailwind is real and accelerating. The stock has rallied ~8% since Q1 earnings and is up ~31% over six months, with multiple expansion accounting for the majority of the move — the NTM P/E has expanded from ~18.2x to ~22.1x — suggesting the market has already priced in a solid print and some merger optionality. The wildcard is the NS merger: the STB accepted the revised application on May 28 and placed proceedings in abeyance pending supplemental information due July 27 — just four days after this earnings call — and any commentary on the timeline, concessions, or regulatory posture could move the stock more than the underlying operating results.
Key Takeaway: Consensus revenue of $6.70B represents a high bar relative to Q1 run-rate and implies meaningful sequential acceleration; operating ratio is the bigger swing factor, with fuel and coal mix creating downside risk to the ~59.2% consensus estimate.
KPI | Q1 2026 Actual (Last Quarter) | Q2 2025 Actual (Prior Year) | Q2 2026 Consensus Estimate | YoY Change (Est. vs. PY) | Guidance (FY 2026) | Consensus vs. Guidance |
Operating EPS (Diluted) | $2.93 | $3.03 | $3.23 | +6.6% | Mid-single digit reported EPS growth (FY) | FY cons. $12.71 vs. ~$12.50 implied midpoint; ~+1.7% above |
Total Operating Revenue | $6.217B | $6.154B | $6.701B | +8.9% | No explicit revenue guidance | N/A |
Operating Ratio (Adjusted, %) | 59.88% | 58.08% | 59.19% | +111 bps YoY | OR improvement vs. 2025 full-year 59.3% adj. | Consensus implies slight improvement vs. FY guidance; fuel risk to downside |
Total Freight Carloads | 2,083K | 2,114K | 2,166K | +2.5% | Positive volume growth targeted | Consistent with ~1% QTD trend noted at May conferences |
Revenue per Carload (Total) | $2,829 | $2,764 | $2,939 | +6.3% | Pricing dollars to exceed inflation dollars | Fuel surcharge tailwind embedded; core pricing improvement needed |
Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. All consensus figures as of July 22, 2026.
Quarter | KPI | Reported | Consensus | Surprise % | Result |
Q1 2026 | Operating EPS | $2.93 | $2.86 | +2.4% | Beat |
Q1 2026 | Total Revenue | $6.217B | $6.230B | -0.2% | In-Line |
Q4 2025 | Operating EPS | $2.86 | $2.87 | -0.3% | Miss |
Q4 2025 | Total Revenue | $6.085B | $6.112B | -0.4% | Miss |
Q3 2025 | Operating EPS | $3.08 | $3.00 | +2.7% | Beat |
Q3 2025 | Total Revenue | $6.244B | $6.247B | -0.1% | In-Line |
Q2 2025 | Operating EPS | $3.03 | $2.93 | +3.4% | Beat |
Q2 2025 | Total Revenue | $6.154B | $6.163B | -0.1% | In-Line |
Q1 2025 | Operating EPS | $2.70 | $2.75 | -1.8% | Miss |
Q1 2025 | Total Revenue | $6.027B | $6.074B | -0.8% | Miss |
Q4 2024 | Operating EPS | $2.96 | $2.79 | +6.1% | Beat |
Q4 2024 | Total Revenue | $6.121B | $6.155B | -0.6% | Miss |
Q3 2024 | Operating EPS | $2.75 | $2.80 | -1.8% | Miss |
Q3 2024 | Total Revenue | $6.091B | $6.139B | -0.8% | Miss |
Q2 2024 | Operating EPS | $2.71 | $2.73 | -0.6% | Miss |
Q2 2024 | Total Revenue | $6.007B | $6.068B | -1.0% | Miss |
Pattern: UNP has beaten operating EPS in 4 of the last 8 quarters but consistently misses or comes in-line on revenue, suggesting cost discipline is the primary lever for upside; the Q1 2026 EPS beat was the largest positive surprise in recent history. Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.
Key Takeaway: Full-year guidance was affirmed at Q1 earnings (mid-single digit reported EPS growth, OR improvement) and has not been formally revised since; tone has shifted more cautious on fuel and coal but more constructive on intermodal and industrial through May–June conferences.
Metric | Initial Guidance (Q1 2026 Earnings Call, Apr 23) | Revised Guidance | Current Consensus | Note |
Reported EPS Growth (FY 2026) | Mid-single digit growth vs. FY 2025 reported | — | $12.71 FY cons. (Visible Alpha) | Unchanged; includes merger cost headwind and no buybacks |
Operating Ratio (FY 2026) | Improvement vs. 2025 adj. OR of 59.3% | — | 58.97% FY cons. (Visible Alpha) | Unchanged; fuel headwind flagged as Q2 risk at May conferences |
Diesel Fuel Cost (FY 2026) | $2.35/gallon original estimate (set Jan 2026) | ~$4.00–$4.25/gallon actual in Apr–May (flagged at May 20 Wolfe conf.) | N/A — not a consensus KPI | ↑ Significant upward revision to actual cost; surcharge recovery partially offsets |
Compensation per Employee (FY 2026) | +4% to +5% YoY | — | N/A | Unchanged; productivity gains expected to offset inflation |
Long-Term EPS CAGR (through 2027) | High single-digit to low double-digit CAGR | — | N/A | Explicitly reaffirmed at Q1 earnings; unchanged |
NS Merger Costs (Q2 2026) | Not explicitly guided at Q1 earnings | ~$35M in Q2 (flagged at June 16 European Investor Conference) | N/A | ↑ Higher than prior thinking due to STB refiling work; headwind to reported EPS |
Tone evolution: Management's posture has been consistently confident on operations and the merger thesis through May–June conferences, while becoming more candid about pricing lagging service improvements. CEO Vena explicitly stated at the May 20 Wolfe conference: "We don't think we're in the right place with price against what the level of service and what the customers have gained" — a notable acknowledgment that pricing power remains an area requiring improvement heading into the 2027 bid season.
Key Takeaway: Estimates for Q2 2026 have moved up meaningfully since Q1 earnings (+2.8% on EPS, +2.7% on revenue), suggesting the street has grown more constructive on the intermodal/industrial volume story; FY 2026 estimates are also modestly higher, indicating the fuel headwind is being more than offset by volume and surcharge optimism.
KPI (Period) | Estimate ~5 Days Post Q1 Earnings (as of May 1, 2026) | Current Consensus (July 22, 2026) | Estimate Δ (%) | Initial Guidance (Q1 Earnings Call) | Current Guidance | Guidance Δ | Consensus vs. Guidance (%) |
Operating EPS — Q2 2026 | $3.14 | $3.23 | +2.8% | No explicit Q2 guidance | No explicit Q2 guidance | N/A | N/A |
Total Revenue — Q2 2026 | $6.529B | $6.701B | +2.6% | No explicit Q2 guidance | No explicit Q2 guidance | N/A | N/A |
Operating Ratio — Q2 2026 | 59.10% | 59.19% | +9 bps | No explicit Q2 guidance | No explicit Q2 guidance | N/A | N/A |
Operating EPS — FY 2026 | $12.58 | $12.71 | +1.0% | Mid-single digit reported EPS growth | Unchanged | Unchanged | Cons. ~$12.71 vs. ~$12.50 implied midpoint; ~+1.7% above |
Total Revenue — FY 2026 | $25.91B | $26.23B | +1.2% | No explicit revenue guidance | No explicit revenue guidance | N/A | N/A |
Operating Ratio — FY 2026 | 58.94% | 58.97% | +3 bps | Improvement vs. 2025 adj. OR of 59.3% | Unchanged | Unchanged | Cons. implies ~33 bps improvement; consistent with guidance |
Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Post-Q1 baseline uses consensus as of May 1, 2026 (approximately 5 trading days after April 23 earnings).
The upward revision to Q2 EPS (+2.8%) and revenue (+2.6%) since Q1 earnings reflects growing confidence in the truck-to-rail conversion story and fuel surcharge recovery, partially offset by the OR estimate edging slightly higher (worse) as fuel cost uncertainty persists. The FY 2026 EPS estimate of $12.71 sits modestly above the implied guidance midpoint, suggesting the street is giving UNP credit for operational execution but not yet pricing in a material acceleration.
Key Takeaway: UNP's ~8% gain since Q1 earnings has been almost entirely multiple expansion (NTM P/E from ~18.2x to ~22.1x), not earnings revision-driven — the stock has re-rated on merger optionality and improving freight fundamentals, leaving less room for error on the print.
Since Q1 2026 earnings (April 23, 2026), UNP has risen from $271.26 to $292.56 (as of July 23, 2026 close), a gain of approximately +7.9%. Over the same period, IYT (iShares Transportation Average ETF) rose from $81.60 to $87.95 (+7.8%) and the S&P 500 (SPY) rose from $708.45 to $747.41 (+5.5%). UNP has modestly outperformed both the sector ETF and the broader market since Q1 earnings.
Key performance milestones since Q1 earnings:
Valuation context: NTM EV/EBITDA has expanded from ~13.4x (3 months ago) to ~14.7x currently, and NTM P/E from ~19.8x to ~22.1x. Over the 6-month window, price is up ~32% while EV/EBITDA multiple expanded ~16%, implying roughly half the move is multiple expansion and half is earnings revision-driven. The current 22x NTM P/E is at the high end of UNP's recent trading range and leaves limited margin of safety if the Q2 print disappoints or merger commentary is cautious. Source: Stock Price Data (Yahoo Finance); Valuation multiples from Implied platform.
Key Takeaway: The most important development since Q1 earnings is the STB's acceptance of the revised NS merger application on May 28, which started the 12-month statutory clock; the supplemental information deadline of July 27 — four days after this earnings call — makes merger commentary the single most market-moving topic on the call.
Key Takeaway: Three insider sales since Q1 earnings, all discretionary open-market transactions with no 10b5-1 plan designation — the EVP Marketing & Sales sale of 27,387 shares (~$7.4M) on April 24 is notable in size but occurred immediately post-earnings, a common window for discretionary sales. No open-market purchases. Nothing here signals unusual bearish conviction.
Name | Title | Transaction Type | Shares | Approx. Value | Transaction Date | Note |
Kenyatta G. Rocker | EVP Marketing & Sales | Open Market Sale | 27,387 | ~$7.4M (est. at ~$270/share) | April 24, 2026 | Discretionary; sold day after Q1 earnings; no 10b5-1 plan. Retained 61,102 shares post-sale. |
Jennifer L. Hamann | EVP & CFO | Open Market Sale | 2,000 | ~$537K (est. at ~$269/share) | April 24, 2026 | Discretionary; sold day after Q1 earnings; no 10b5-1 plan. Retained 114,642 shares post-sale. |
Eric J. Gehringer | EVP Operations | Open Market Sale | 2,991 | ~$800K (est. at ~$267/share) | June 3, 2026 | Discretionary; no 10b5-1 plan. Retained 43,012 shares post-sale. |
Source: SEC Form 4 Filings Database. Open-market transactions only (Form 4 code S). No open-market purchases (code P) were filed in the period.
Key Takeaway: Peer commentary from the last 60 days is uniformly constructive for UNP's Q2 print — CSX's record revenue quarter, JBHT's record intermodal volumes, and CPKC/CNI's positive volume and pricing commentary all point to a strong freight environment. The primary risk is fuel cost lag and coal mix, both of which are well-understood by the street.
Note: All commentary below is from the current reporting quarter (Q2 2026) or forward-looking statements made after Q1 2026 earnings. Prior-quarter retrospective commentary has been excluded.
Relevance: CSX is UNP's closest publicly comparable Class I railroad (eastern vs. western network), reporting the same quarter on the same day. This is the highest-quality read-through available.
Relevance: JBHT is the largest intermodal marketing company (IMC) in North America and a direct customer of UNP's intermodal network. Its volume and pricing commentary is a direct leading indicator for UNP's intermodal segment.
Relevance: CPKC operates a competing North American network with significant overlap in agricultural, automotive, and cross-border Mexico traffic. Its Q2 commentary provides a real-time read on shared end markets.
Relevance: CNI is a major North American Class I railroad with significant exposure to grain, energy, and metals — all key UNP segments. Its Q2 commentary provides a cross-border read on shared commodity markets.
Peer | Date | Volume Signal | Pricing Signal | Fuel Signal | Key UNP Segment Read-Through | Overall Signal |
CSX | Jul 22, 2026 | +6% YoY total; intermodal +9% | Core pricing at/above plan; RPU +4% | 160 bps OR headwind; surcharge offsets | Intermodal, merchandise, coal, agriculture | Strongly Positive |
JBHT | Jul 15, 2026 | Record 578K loads; +10% YoY | Value prop strongest in decade; 2027 bid season opportunity | ~100 bps OR headwind | Domestic intermodal (direct customer) | Strongly Positive |
CPKC | Jun 10, 2026 | RTMs +3.5–4.5%; grain record; auto strong | Pricing 3–4.5%; disciplined | "Fuel will be a challenge" | Grain, automotive, intermodal, Mexico | Positive |
CNI | Jun 11, 2026 | RTMs +4%; grain/potash/energy strong | Sequential acceleration; fuel surcharge benefit | 3–4 cents EPS lag; 200 bps OR headwind | Grain, energy, metals, bulk | Positive |
Aggregate peer read-through: All four peers point to a strong Q2 freight environment with accelerating truck-to-rail conversions, record or near-record intermodal volumes, solid grain and bulk demand, and improving pricing. The universal headwind is fuel cost lag on the operating ratio, which is well-understood and partially offset by surcharge revenue. The CSX print (same-day, same quarter) is the most direct and actionable read-through — its raised guidance and record revenue quarter set a constructive tone for UNP's call tomorrow morning.