{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Domain name base / net adds (the metric that moves it)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ending base ~177.4M / net adds ~+1.3M vs. cons ~177.2M / ~+1.1M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Revenue",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$435M vs. cons ~$433M",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "EPS (diluted GAAP)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.43 vs. cons ~$2.40",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 domain name base growth guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~3.1%-4.3% vs. cons ~3.7% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 revenue guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.730B-$1.745B vs. cons ~$1.738B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "H2 renewal-rate cohort outlook (first-time renewal headwind)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide first-time renewals ~mid-40% vs. previously-renewed ~mid-80% (2H2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "ICANN 2026 gTLD round participation decision (.com price hike Nov 1: $10.26->$10.97)",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "decision pending vs. window close Aug 12, 2026; launches ~2028 (FY2026-27 commentary)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 2.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 1.0,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Stock de-risked ~5.4% in the two sessions into the print, so a slight EPS beat plus a domain base that keeps tracking the 3.1-4.3% guide should spark a modest relief bounce day 1. But VRSN is a predictable annuity model, so a beat drives little upward out-year revision; the reiterated H2 first-time-renewal headwind (mid-40% vs mid-80%), seasonally softer Q2 net adds, and a guide that is held rather than raised again cap follow-through, so the initial pop partially fades over 5 days. Low beta (~0-0.4) means index moves add little residual noise.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}