WAB Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-22

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
WAB Report Adjusted EPS (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$2.68 vs. cons $2.63 MEDIUM
WAB Report Total Revenue (Q2 2026) MISS pred ~$3.02B vs. cons $3.075B MEDIUM
WAB Report Freight segment operating income (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$540M vs. cons $528M MEDIUM
WAB Guide FY2026 Adjusted EPS guidance (midpoint) LOWER guide ~$10.75 vs. cons $11.00 (FY2026) MEDIUM
WAB Guide FY2026 Revenue guidance (midpoint) LOWER guide ~$12.35B vs. cons $12.50B (FY2026) MEDIUM
WAB Guide H2 2026 Services growth (mix flip from Equipment-led) BETTER guide ~+3% vs. cons ~0% (H2 2026) LOW
WAB Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -1.5% LOW
WAB Return 5-day cumulative residual -0.5% (FADE) Day-1 likely skews negative as revenue misses again (repeating the Q1 pattern) even with an EPS beat, against a stretched ~37x multiple and sell-side targets already raised into the print (Stephens $320, JPM $300). But WAB's underlying setup (record backlog +38% YoY, tariff mitigation, Dellner/Frauscher/Inspection Tech ramping ahead of plan, constructive AAR freight data) supports dip-buying, so the initial reaction should partially reverse over the week rather than compound. FY guidance likely gets a modest raise but stays below the ~$11 Street EPS consensus, capping upside revisions; management's own flag that Q4 tariff costs step up again limits out-period estimate momentum, preventing a strong follow-through rally, hence a fade back toward roughly flat rather than a durable extension of day-1 moves. LOW