AAPL Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
AAPL Report Total revenue (Q3 FY26, June qtr) BEAT pred ~$110.5B vs. cons ~$108.7B MEDIUM
AAPL Report Diluted EPS (Q3 FY26) BEAT pred ~$1.93 vs. cons ~$1.87 MEDIUM
AAPL Report Gross margin (Q3 FY26, reported) IN-LINE pred ~48.6% vs. cons ~48.3% MEDIUM
AAPL Guide Q4/Sept FY26 gross-margin guide (memory-cost cliff) LOWER guide ~46.5% vs. cons ~47.5% (Q4/Sept FY26) MEDIUM
AAPL Guide Q4/Sept FY26 total revenue guide UNCHANGED guide ~+10% YoY / ~$112B vs. cons ~$112B (Q4/Sept FY26) LOW
AAPL Guide Greater China revenue (reported/commentary) BETTER pred ~+16% (~$17.9B) vs. cons ~+10% (~$16.9B) (Q3 FY26) MEDIUM
AAPL Guide Services growth (ex-FX, guide/commentary) UNCHANGED guide ~13-14% ex-FX vs. cons ~14% (Q3 FY26) MEDIUM
AAPL Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -3.0% MEDIUM
AAPL Return 5-day cumulative residual -4.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Headline revenue/EPS beat, but the Sept-quarter gross-margin guide confirms the escalating memory-cost squeeze (Cook flagged 'increasing impact' beyond June), forcing downward FY27 margin/EPS revisions. At ~35x forward, a ~$5T cap and options pricing only ~3.8%, the stock is priced for perfection, so an implicit out-period margin cut outweighs the June beat. Negative day-1 reaction follows through lower as sell-side trims margin estimates over the subsequent days rather than fading. LOW