{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Total revenue (Q3 FY26, June qtr)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$110.5B vs. cons ~$108.7B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Diluted EPS (Q3 FY26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.93 vs. cons ~$1.87",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Gross margin (Q3 FY26, reported)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~48.6% vs. cons ~48.3%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q4/Sept FY26 gross-margin guide (memory-cost cliff)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~46.5% vs. cons ~47.5% (Q4/Sept FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q4/Sept FY26 total revenue guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~+10% YoY / ~$112B vs. cons ~$112B (Q4/Sept FY26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Greater China revenue (reported/commentary)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "pred ~+16% (~$17.9B) vs. cons ~+10% (~$16.9B) (Q3 FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Services growth (ex-FX, guide/commentary)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~13-14% ex-FX vs. cons ~14% (Q3 FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -3.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -4.5,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "Headline revenue/EPS beat, but the Sept-quarter gross-margin guide confirms the escalating memory-cost squeeze (Cook flagged 'increasing impact' beyond June), forcing downward FY27 margin/EPS revisions. At ~35x forward, a ~$5T cap and options pricing only ~3.8%, the stock is priced for perfection, so an implicit out-period margin cut outweighs the June beat. Negative day-1 reaction follows through lower as sell-side trims margin estimates over the subsequent days rather than fading.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}