AAPL Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
AAPL Report Total Revenue (Q3 FY26 / June quarter) BEAT pred ~$110.3B vs. cons $108.9B MEDIUM
AAPL Report Diluted EPS (Q3 FY26) BEAT pred ~$1.94 vs. cons $1.89 MEDIUM
AAPL Report iPhone Revenue (Q3 FY26) BEAT pred ~$56.0B vs. cons $54.8B MEDIUM
AAPL Guide Q4 FY26 (Sept quarter) Revenue Growth YoY BETTER guide ~11% vs. cons ~9.5% (Sept-qtr FY26) LOW
AAPL Guide Q4 FY26 Gross Margin LOWER guide ~46.5%-47.3% (mid ~46.9%) vs. cons ~47.8% (Sept-qtr FY26) HIGH
AAPL Guide Q4 FY26 Operating Expenses LOWER guide ~$19.6B vs. cons ~$19.2B (Sept-qtr FY26, higher opex = unfavorable vs. Street) MEDIUM
AAPL Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +0.6% MEDIUM
AAPL Return 5-day cumulative residual -1.8% (FADE) Headline revenue/EPS beat and iPhone strength drive an initial modest pop (helped by the emotional Cook farewell narrative), but the memory-cost-driven September-quarter gross margin guide below consensus forces sell-side FY26 EPS estimate cuts over the following days. With the stock priced at 35x+ forward earnings for a 'beat-and-raise,' a beat without a raise on margins triggers valuation-multiple compression as models get trimmed for the seasonally critical iPhone-launch quarter, producing a fade rather than follow-through. MEDIUM