{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Total Revenue (Q3 FY26 / June quarter)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$110.3B vs. cons $108.9B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Diluted EPS (Q3 FY26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.94 vs. cons $1.89",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "iPhone Revenue (Q3 FY26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$56.0B vs. cons $54.8B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q4 FY26 (Sept quarter) Revenue Growth YoY",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~11% vs. cons ~9.5% (Sept-qtr FY26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q4 FY26 Gross Margin",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~46.5%-47.3% (mid ~46.9%) vs. cons ~47.8% (Sept-qtr FY26)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q4 FY26 Operating Expenses",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$19.6B vs. cons ~$19.2B (Sept-qtr FY26, higher opex = unfavorable vs. Street)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 0.6,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -1.8,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Headline revenue/EPS beat and iPhone strength drive an initial modest pop (helped by the emotional Cook farewell narrative), but the memory-cost-driven September-quarter gross margin guide below consensus forces sell-side FY26 EPS estimate cuts over the following days. With the stock priced at 35x+ forward earnings for a 'beat-and-raise,' a beat without a raise on margins triggers valuation-multiple compression as models get trimmed for the seasonally critical iPhone-launch quarter, producing a fade rather than follow-through.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}