AAPL Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
AAPL Report Revenue (FQ3 2026) BEAT pred ~$110.2B vs. cons $108.86B MEDIUM
AAPL Report iPhone revenue (FQ3 2026) BEAT pred ~$53.8B vs. cons $53.0B MEDIUM
AAPL Report Gross margin (FQ3 2026) IN-LINE pred ~48.4% vs. cons 48.2% MEDIUM
AAPL Guide Revenue (FQ4 2026) BETTER guide ~$116.2B vs. cons $115.78B (FQ4 2026) MEDIUM
AAPL Guide Gross margin (FQ4 2026) LOWER guide ~47.2% midpoint vs. cons 47.7% (FQ4 2026) MEDIUM
AAPL Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -2.4% MEDIUM
AAPL Return 5-day cumulative residual -3.8% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) The likely FQ3 revenue and iPhone beats are offset by FQ4 gross-margin guidance ~50 bp below consensus; applying the lower margin to ~$116.2B of out-period revenue implies roughly ~$0.6B less gross profit than consensus, driving post-print EPS estimate cuts despite slightly better revenue guidance. MEDIUM