AAPL Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
AAPL Report Total revenue BEAT pred ~$110.3B vs. cons $108.6B MEDIUM
AAPL Report Diluted EPS BEAT pred ~$1.98 vs. cons $1.92 MEDIUM
AAPL Report Gross margin BEAT pred ~48.7% vs. cons 48.1% MEDIUM
AAPL Guide Total revenue growth BETTER guide ~8.0% YoY vs. cons 6.5% YoY (FY2026 Q4/September quarter) MEDIUM
AAPL Guide Gross margin LOWER guide ~46.5% vs. cons 47.6% (FY2026 Q4/September quarter) HIGH
AAPL Guide Services revenue growth UNCHANGED guide ~14.0% YoY vs. cons 14.0% YoY (FY2026 Q4/September quarter) MEDIUM
AAPL Guide Memory-cost commentary LOWER guide ~150 bps gross-margin headwind vs. cons ~90 bps headwind (FY2026 Q4/September quarter) HIGH
AAPL Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -3.8% MEDIUM
AAPL Return 5-day cumulative residual -5.6% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) A June-quarter revenue/EPS beat is likely outweighed by the ~$1.1-point September gross-margin guide shortfall: the implied out-period EPS math falls from roughly $2.00 to ~$1.91, prompting FY2026/FY2027 estimate cuts despite strong iPhone and Services demand. MEDIUM