AAPL Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
AAPL Report Gross Margin (%) BEAT pred ~48.4% vs. cons 47.97% MEDIUM
AAPL Report Services Revenue BEAT pred ~$31.7B vs. cons $31.39B MEDIUM
AAPL Report iPhone Revenue BEAT pred ~$53.8B vs. cons $53.11B MEDIUM
AAPL Guide Q4 FY26 Revenue (Q4 FY26) LOWER guide ~$114.3B midpoint vs. cons ~$120.5B MEDIUM
AAPL Guide Q4 FY26 Gross Margin (Q4 FY26) LOWER guide ~47.5% midpoint vs. cons ~48.1% MEDIUM
AAPL Guide Memory Cost Commentary (FY27 signal) LOWER guide meaningful/material escalation vs. market pricing modest headwind MEDIUM
AAPL Guide China / AI Tone (Qualitative) BETTER guide constructive China + Siri AI ramp vs. cautious consensus MEDIUM
AAPL Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -4.0% MEDIUM
AAPL Return 5-day cumulative residual -6.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) FOLLOW-THROUGH — Q4 guide miss drives sell-side cuts to Q4 and FY27 estimates over 3-5 days post-print; no stabilization catalyst until management provides more color on memory cost trajectory MEDIUM