{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Operating EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.52 vs. cons $2.46",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Consolidated combined ratio",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~82.8% vs. cons 84.0%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Reinsurance net premiums earned",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.86B vs. cons $1.93B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Reinsurance net premiums written growth",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~-8% vs. cons -4% (2H 2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Insurance underlying combined ratio",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~91.5% vs. cons 92.0% (2H 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Share repurchases",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$3.2B vs. cons $2.8B (FY 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.8,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Day-5 residual ~+0.5% vs. day-1 ~+1.8%: favorable catastrophe experience, reserve development and buybacks support the initial beat, but weaker reinsurance premiums and July-renewal commentary imply lower 2027 earned-premium and EPS estimates.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}