ACGL Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
ACGL Report Operating EPS (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$2.55 vs. cons $2.47 (VA, Jul 28) MEDIUM
ACGL Report Net Premiums Written (Q2 2026) MISS pred ~$4.10B vs. cons $4.217B (VA, Jul 28) MEDIUM
ACGL Report Ex-cat/ex-PYD Combined Ratio (Q2 2026) IN-LINE pred ~82.5% vs. cons 82.21% (VA, Jul 28) MEDIUM
ACGL Guide Property Cat NPW trajectory (Q3 2026 implied) LOWER guide implies ~$4.1-4.2B vs. cons $4.40B MEDIUM
ACGL Guide OpEx ratio normalization (H2 2026) UNCHANGED reaffirms normalization toward historical levels vs. cons already models improvement HIGH
ACGL Guide Capital return / buybacks (FY 2026) UNCHANGED continued aggressive pace reaffirmed vs. cons models ~$3B+ annual buybacks HIGH
ACGL Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -1.5% MEDIUM
ACGL Return 5-day cumulative residual -2.5% (FADE) FADE -- estimate cuts on Q3 NPW follow cautious 7/1 commentary; all 3 prior Archetype C instances faded over 5 days MEDIUM