| ADP |
Report |
Q4 Adjusted diluted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.58 vs. cons ~$2.55 |
MEDIUM |
| ADP |
Report |
Q4 Consolidated revenue |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$5.46B vs. cons ~$5.45B |
MEDIUM |
| ADP |
Report |
Q4 ES new business bookings growth (biggest bookings qtr) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~+6% vs. cons ~+6% |
LOW |
| ADP |
Guide |
FY27 consolidated revenue growth guide |
LOWER |
guide ~5–6% vs. cons ~6% (FY27) |
MEDIUM |
| ADP |
Guide |
FY27 adjusted EPS growth guide |
LOWER |
guide ~8–9% vs. cons ~10% (FY27) |
MEDIUM |
| ADP |
Guide |
FY27 adj EBIT margin expansion guide |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~+60–80 bps vs. cons ~+70 bps (FY27) |
LOW |
| ADP |
Guide |
FY27 client funds interest revenue guide |
UNKNOWN |
guide ~$1.45B vs. cons ~$1.45B (FY27) |
LOW |
| ADP |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-2.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| ADP |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-4.0% (FADE) |
Stock ripped ~23% in a month (~9% in the week) into a de-risked FY26 print, so the bar is very high and a modest EPS beat/in-line revenue is already priced. ADP's classic pattern is a conservative initial FY27 guide (rev ~5–6%, EPS ~8–9%) that sits below the double-digit-EPS algorithm the run-up implies; that out-period math pulls FY27 estimates down even after a Q4 beat, driving a sell-the-news fade that extends over the week absent an upside bookings/margin-acceleration surprise. |
MEDIUM |