{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q4 Adjusted diluted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.58 vs. cons ~$2.55",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q4 Consolidated revenue",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$5.46B vs. cons ~$5.45B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q4 ES new business bookings growth (biggest bookings qtr)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~+6% vs. cons ~+6%",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY27 consolidated revenue growth guide",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~5\u20136% vs. cons ~6% (FY27)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY27 adjusted EPS growth guide",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~8\u20139% vs. cons ~10% (FY27)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY27 adj EBIT margin expansion guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~+60\u201380 bps vs. cons ~+70 bps (FY27)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY27 client funds interest revenue guide",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.45B vs. cons ~$1.45B (FY27)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -2.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -4.0,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Stock ripped ~23% in a month (~9% in the week) into a de-risked FY26 print, so the bar is very high and a modest EPS beat/in-line revenue is already priced. ADP's classic pattern is a conservative initial FY27 guide (rev ~5\u20136%, EPS ~8\u20139%) that sits below the double-digit-EPS algorithm the run-up implies; that out-period math pulls FY27 estimates down even after a Q4 beat, driving a sell-the-news fade that extends over the week absent an upside bookings/margin-acceleration surprise.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}