| ADP |
Report |
Adjusted diluted EPS (Q4 FY26) |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.63 vs. cons $2.59 |
MEDIUM |
| ADP |
Report |
Total revenue (Q4 FY26) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$5.42B vs. cons $5.40B |
MEDIUM |
| ADP |
Report |
Adjusted EBIT margin expansion (FY26 full-year, bps YoY) |
BEAT |
pred ~85bps vs. cons/guide-midpoint ~75bps |
MEDIUM |
| ADP |
Guide |
Initial FY2027 total revenue growth guide |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~6%-7% vs. cons ~6.5% (FY2027) |
LOW |
| ADP |
Guide |
Initial FY2027 adjusted diluted EPS growth guide |
BETTER |
guide ~10%-11% vs. cons ~10% (FY2027) |
LOW |
| ADP |
Guide |
Initial FY2027 adjusted EBIT margin expansion guide |
BETTER |
guide ~80-90bps vs. cons/prior-year-pace ~70bps (FY2027) |
MEDIUM |
| ADP |
Guide |
FY2027 U.S. pays-per-control initial assumption |
LOWER |
guide ~0.5% vs. cons/FY26 pace ~1% (FY2027) |
MEDIUM |
| ADP |
Guide |
ES new business bookings growth (Q4/FY26 actual vs full-year 4-7% guide) |
BETTER |
pred ~6% vs. cons/guide-midpoint ~5.5% (FY2026 full year) |
LOW |
| ADP |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-2.2% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| ADP |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-1.2% (FADE) |
ADP rallied ~9% in the 3 sessions pre-print (264 vs 243) on sector-rotation flows out of AI-exposed chip/hyperscaler names into 'safe' quality compounders (Workday +9.3% same days), not on ADP-specific news — a large idiosyncratic cushion unrelated to the print itself. That sets up classic buy-the-rumor/sell-the-news risk: even a clean beat-and-raise (our base case) likely can't clear a bar that already prices in strong retention, bookings, and a credible FY27 framework. Expect an initial negative idiosyncratic reaction on day 1 as rotation-driven longs take profits, then partial mean-reversion over the week as underlying fundamentals (record retention, float income tailwind, credible FY27 margin/EPS algo) get reaffirmed by sell-side commentary and estimates aren't cut outright (implicit FY27 guide is roughly in line to slightly better) — hence fade of the initial drop rather than follow-through downside or full reversal. |
LOW |