{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted diluted EPS (Q4 FY26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.63 vs. cons $2.59",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total revenue (Q4 FY26)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$5.42B vs. cons $5.40B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EBIT margin expansion (FY26 full-year, bps YoY)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~85bps vs. cons/guide-midpoint ~75bps",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Initial FY2027 total revenue growth guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~6%-7% vs. cons ~6.5% (FY2027)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Initial FY2027 adjusted diluted EPS growth guide",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~10%-11% vs. cons ~10% (FY2027)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Initial FY2027 adjusted EBIT margin expansion guide",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~80-90bps vs. cons/prior-year-pace ~70bps (FY2027)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2027 U.S. pays-per-control initial assumption",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~0.5% vs. cons/FY26 pace ~1% (FY2027)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "ES new business bookings growth (Q4/FY26 actual vs full-year 4-7% guide)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "pred ~6% vs. cons/guide-midpoint ~5.5% (FY2026 full year)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -2.2,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -1.2,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "ADP rallied ~9% in the 3 sessions pre-print (264 vs 243) on sector-rotation flows out of AI-exposed chip/hyperscaler names into 'safe' quality compounders (Workday +9.3% same days), not on ADP-specific news \u2014 a large idiosyncratic cushion unrelated to the print itself. That sets up classic buy-the-rumor/sell-the-news risk: even a clean beat-and-raise (our base case) likely can't clear a bar that already prices in strong retention, bookings, and a credible FY27 framework. Expect an initial negative idiosyncratic reaction on day 1 as rotation-driven longs take profits, then partial mean-reversion over the week as underlying fundamentals (record retention, float income tailwind, credible FY27 margin/EPS algo) get reaffirmed by sell-side commentary and estimates aren't cut outright (implicit FY27 guide is roughly in line to slightly better) \u2014 hence fade of the initial drop rather than follow-through downside or full reversal.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}