ADP Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
ADP Report Adj. Diluted EPS (Q4 FY2026) BEAT pred ~$2.65 vs. cons $2.592 MEDIUM
ADP Report ES Client Revenue Retention (Q4 FY2026) IN-LINE pred ~91.2% vs. cons 91.03% MEDIUM
ADP Report PEO Avg. Worksite Employees (Q4 FY2026) IN-LINE pred ~770,000 vs. cons 775,544 MEDIUM
ADP Guide FY2026 Adj. EPS (FY2026) BETTER guide ~11.1-11.5% growth vs. cons $11.076 MEDIUM
ADP Guide FY2026 Total Revenue (FY2026) UNCHANGED guide reaffirm 6-7% vs. cons $21.91B HIGH
ADP Guide FY2027 Qualitative Commentary BETTER constructive AI margin durability; elevated buybacks reiterated MEDIUM
ADP Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -0.5% MEDIUM
ADP Return 5-day cumulative residual -2.0% (FADE) FADE - beat absorbed by stretched setup; sell-side models limited FY2027 upside; short covering fuel diminishing MEDIUM