Company | Automatic Data Processing, Inc. |
Ticker | NASDAQ: ADP |
Reporting Period | 4Q FY2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026) |
Earnings Date | July 29, 2026 — 8:30 AM ET |
Prepared | July 28, 2026 |
Last Earnings | April 29, 2026 (3Q FY2026) |
Key Takeaway: The setup favors a beat — consensus is a manageable bar, Q4 is ADP's largest bookings quarter and management entered it with healthy pipelines and a fully-staffed sales force, but the single biggest swing factor is whether bookings growth lands at the high or low end of the 4%–7% full-year guide, given Q4 historically accounts for a disproportionate share of annual new business.
Heading into 4Q FY2026, ADP's setup is constructive. Consensus is calling for total revenue of ~$5.44B (+6% YoY) and operating EPS of ~$2.59, both of which sit modestly above the implied Q4 run-rate embedded in the raised full-year guide — a bar that management has beaten in each of the prior three quarters. The demand environment has been described as "very constructive" and "stable" at both the May TD Cowen and JP Morgan conferences, with pipelines characterized as healthy entering the quarter. Estimate revisions have been essentially flat since the Q3 print, suggesting the street has not materially re-rated the quarter in either direction, leaving the stock without a significant pre-earnings revision tailwind or headwind. ADP has rallied ~23% since the April 29 earnings date (vs. XLF +11%, SPY +4%), driven almost entirely by multiple re-expansion rather than estimate upgrades, which means the stock is pricing in execution but not a blowout. The key wildcard is Q4 bookings: management acknowledged "a lot to get done" and the full-year range remains wide, with each 1% of bookings growth worth ~$20–21M in sensitivity — a miss at the low end of the range would be the most likely source of a negative surprise, while a print at or above the high end would likely drive further multiple expansion.
Key Takeaway: Consensus is a manageable, not demanding, bar — estimates have barely moved since the Q3 print, implying the street is waiting for the print rather than pre-positioning. Bookings growth (qualitative) and Employer Services revenue are the bigger swing factors; PEO worksite employees are well-telegraphed at ~2% growth.
KPI | Last Quarter Actual (3Q FY2026) | Prior Year Period (4Q FY2025) | Consensus Estimate (4Q FY2026) | YoY Change | Guidance (FY2026 Full-Year) | Consensus vs. Guidance |
Total Revenue ($B) | $5.939B | $5.127B | $5.438B | +6.1% | 6%–7% total revenue growth | ~In-line with midpoint |
Employer Services Revenue ($B) | $4.036B | $3.466B | $3.663B | +5.7% | 6%–7% ES revenue growth | ~Slightly below midpoint |
Operating EPS (Diluted) | $3.37 | $2.26 | $2.59 | +14.6% | 10%–11% adj. EPS growth (FY) | ~In-line with guide |
Adjusted EBIT ($B) | $1.792B | $1.213B | $1.360B | +12.1% | 70–80 bps adj. EBIT margin expansion | ~In-line |
Avg. Paid PEO Worksite Employees (#) | 762,000 | 761,000 | 775,544 | +1.9% | ~2% avg. WSE growth (FY) | ~In-line with guide |
ES New Business Bookings Growth | Solid (broad-based) | 3% (FY2025 full year) | N/A — not in VA (qualitative) | Above prior year | 4%–7% FY growth | Key swing factor |
ES Client Revenue Retention (bps chg) | Record Q3 (new high) | Strong | N/A — not in VA (qualitative) | Flat to slight decline | Flat to −20 bps (FY) | Prudent guide; upside possible |
Sources: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data (Total Revenue, ES Revenue, Operating EPS, Adjusted EBIT, Avg. PEO WSE); ADP 3Q FY2026 Earnings Release & Transcript (April 29, 2026); ADP TD Cowen Conference (May 28, 2026); ADP JP Morgan Conference (May 19, 2026). Bookings and retention are qualitative disclosures not tracked in Visible Alpha.
Quarter | Reported ($B) | Consensus ($B) | Surprise % | Result |
3Q FY2026 (Mar 2026) | $5.939B | $5.851B | +1.5% | Beat |
2Q FY2026 (Dec 2025) | $5.359B | $5.328B | +0.6% | Beat |
1Q FY2026 (Sep 2025) | $5.175B | $5.130B | +0.9% | Beat |
4Q FY2025 (Jun 2025) | $5.127B | $5.033B | +1.9% | Beat |
3Q FY2025 (Mar 2025) | $5.553B | $5.494B | +1.1% | Beat |
2Q FY2025 (Dec 2024) | $5.048B | $4.965B | +1.7% | Beat |
1Q FY2025 (Sep 2024) | $4.833B | $4.766B | +1.4% | Beat |
4Q FY2024 (Jun 2024) | $4.769B | $4.740B | +0.6% | Beat |
Quarter | Reported ($) | Consensus ($) | Surprise % | Result |
3Q FY2026 (Mar 2026) | $3.37 | $3.29 | +2.4% | Beat |
2Q FY2026 (Dec 2025) | $2.62 | $2.57 | +1.9% | Beat |
1Q FY2026 (Sep 2025) | $2.49 | $2.44 | +2.0% | Beat |
4Q FY2025 (Jun 2025) | $2.26 | $2.22 | +1.8% | Beat |
3Q FY2025 (Mar 2025) | $3.06 | $2.97 | +3.0% | Beat |
2Q FY2025 (Dec 2024) | $2.36 | $2.29 | +3.1% | Beat |
1Q FY2025 (Sep 2024) | $2.33 | $2.21 | +5.4% | Beat |
4Q FY2024 (Jun 2024) | $2.09 | $2.05 | +2.0% | Beat |
Pattern: ADP has beaten consensus on both revenue and operating EPS in each of the last 8 consecutive quarters, with revenue surprises averaging ~1.2% and EPS surprises averaging ~2.7% — a remarkably consistent track record that sets a high bar for the Q4 print but also validates the structural cushion management builds into guidance.
Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.
Key Takeaway: Guidance was raised meaningfully at the Q3 print and has been reaffirmed without change at two post-earnings investor conferences; tone has shifted from cautious (post-Q2) to confident, with management explicitly framing the current margin delivery level as the new go-forward baseline rather than a temporary factor.
Metric | Initial Guidance (Q3 FY2026 Earnings — Apr 29, 2026) | Revised Guidance | Current Consensus | Note |
Total Revenue Growth (FY2026) | 6%–7% | — | ~6.1% (FY consensus $21.91B) | Reaffirmed at TD Cowen (May 28) and JP Morgan (May 19) conferences; no change |
ES Revenue Growth (FY2026) | 6%–7% | — | ~5.9% (FY consensus $14.80B) | Reaffirmed; consensus tracking slightly below midpoint |
Adj. EBIT Margin Expansion (FY2026) | 70–80 bps | — | ~In-line | CFO signaled at TD Cowen that current elevated margin level is the new go-forward baseline, not a temporary factor; AI productivity driving structural improvement |
Adj. EPS Growth (FY2026) | 10%–11% | — | ~10.5% ($11.08 FY consensus) | Reaffirmed; supported by elevated share repurchases |
ES New Business Bookings Growth (FY2026) | 4%–7% | — | N/A — qualitative | Range held wide deliberately; Q4 is largest bookings quarter; pipelines described as healthy at both May conferences; implies acceleration vs. FY2025’s 3% result |
ES Client Revenue Retention (FY2026) | Flat to −20 bps (raised 10 bps at Q3) | — | N/A — qualitative | ↑ Raised 10 bps at Q3 earnings; CFO at TD Cowen described retention as “very strong and stable”; expected modest decline is prudence, not structural |
Avg. PEO WSE Growth (FY2026) | ~2% | — | ~1.9% (775,544 WSE consensus) | Reaffirmed; achieved 2% in each of first 3 quarters; pays per control softness in grey-collar industries (construction, hospitality, trade) partially offset by white-collar strength |
Client Funds Interest Revenue (FY2026) | $1.34B–1.35B | — | ~In-line | Midpoint raised $25M at Q3; avg. yield ~3.4%; avg. balance growth ~6%; float risk from stablecoins/faster payments dismissed by CFO at TD Cowen |
Pricing Contribution (FY2026) | ~130 bps (raised from ~100 bps at Q3) | — | N/A — qualitative | ↑ Raised at Q3 earnings; reaffirmed at JP Morgan conference (May 19); value-based pricing approach; AI-driven product enhancements enabling price realization |
Source: ADP 3Q FY2026 Earnings Call Transcript (April 29, 2026); ADP TD Cowen Technology, Media & Telecom Conference Transcript (May 28, 2026); ADP JP Morgan Global Technology, Media and Communications Conference Transcript (May 19, 2026); Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.
Key Takeaway: Estimates have been essentially frozen since the Q3 print — the street has not materially revised 4Q or FY2026 numbers in either direction since May 8, suggesting the consensus is waiting for the print rather than pre-positioning. The gap between current consensus and guidance midpoints is narrow, implying limited cushion but also limited downside risk from estimate cuts heading in.
KPI (Period) | Estimate (May 8, 2026 — 5 Days Post Q3 Print) | Current Consensus (Jul 28, 2026) | Estimate Δ (%) | Initial Guidance (Q3 Earnings Call) | Current Guidance | Guidance Δ | Consensus vs. Guidance (%) |
Total Revenue — 4Q FY2026 | $5.435B | $5.438B | +0.1% | Implied by 6%–7% FY guide | Unchanged | — | ~In-line with midpoint |
Total Revenue — FY2026 | $21.909B | $21.912B | +0.0% | 6%–7% growth | Unchanged | — | ~In-line |
Operating EPS — 4Q FY2026 | $2.590 | $2.592 | +0.1% | Implied by 10%–11% FY EPS growth | Unchanged | — | ~In-line |
Operating EPS — FY2026 | $11.074 | $11.076 | +0.0% | 10%–11% growth | Unchanged | — | ~In-line |
ES Revenue — 4Q FY2026 | $3.662B | $3.663B | +0.0% | Implied by 6%–7% ES guide | Unchanged | — | ~Slightly below midpoint |
ES Revenue — FY2026 | $14.796B | $14.798B | +0.0% | 6%–7% ES growth | Unchanged | — | ~In-line |
Avg. PEO WSE — 4Q FY2026 | 775,544 | 775,544 | 0.0% | ~2% FY growth | Unchanged | — | ~In-line |
Estimates have been virtually unchanged since the Q3 print — the largest single-week revision was a +$0.001 move in 4Q operating EPS in the week of July 10, reflecting a minor upward nudge from a small number of analysts. The absence of meaningful revision activity in either direction is consistent with a market that has already priced in the guidance raise and is now waiting for execution confirmation. The slight consensus-below-midpoint positioning on ES revenue is the one area where a beat would be most incremental.
Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data (revision history May 8 – July 28, 2026); ADP 3Q FY2026 Earnings Call Transcript.
Key Takeaway: ADP has rallied ~23% since the April 29 earnings date vs. XLF +11% and SPY +4% — the outperformance is almost entirely multiple re-expansion (NTM P/E expanded from ~17.8x to ~20.8x) rather than estimate upgrades, which were negligible. The stock has re-rated on improved sentiment around AI productivity, margin trajectory, and PEO stabilization, but the multiple is now back near the upper end of its recent range, leaving less room for error.
Sector ETF used: XLF (Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund). ADP is classified in the Financials sector (Data Processing & Outsourced Services sub-industry) and XLF is the standard benchmark for this classification.
Indexed Performance Since April 29, 2026 (Last Earnings Date = 100)
Date | ADP (Indexed) | XLF (Indexed) | SPY (Indexed) |
Apr 29, 2026 (Base) | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
May 8, 2026 | 99.0 | 98.7 | 103.7 |
May 22, 2026 | 104.8 | 100.0 | 104.8 |
Jun 1, 2026 | 108.7 | 99.1 | 106.6 |
Jun 30, 2026 | 104.1 | 103.3 | 104.9 |
Jul 16, 2026 | 119.3 | 109.3 | 105.5 |
Jul 27, 2026 (Latest) | 118.6 | 109.6 | 103.9 |
Key Events Since April 29, 2026:
Valuation Context: NTM P/E of ~20.8x (as of July 28) compares to ~17.8x at the April 29 earnings date — a ~17% multiple re-expansion that accounts for essentially all of the stock’s outperformance vs. the market. NTM EV/EBITDA of ~14.9x is at the upper end of the post-2022 range. The stock is no longer cheap on a relative basis, which means the Q4 print needs to confirm the margin trajectory narrative to sustain the re-rating.
Source: Stock Price Data (Yahoo Finance); ADP Stock Performance Decomposition (Implied); Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.
Key Takeaway: The most important post-Q3 development is the $9.2B credit facility secured June 26, which dramatically expands ADP’s capital return firepower and reinforces management’s commitment to elevated buybacks through FY2027 — a direct EPS tailwind. The macro backdrop (stable employment, no recession signals) is incrementally supportive.
Key Takeaway: Insider activity since the Q3 print is minimal and not directionally concerning — the one open-market purchase by a director (Robert Swan, ~$750K) is a modest positive signal, while the executive sale by Brian Michaud was a pre-planned 10b5-1 disposition. No clustered selling or unusual transaction sizes that would raise a flag.
Name | Title | Transaction Type | Shares | Approx. Value | Transaction Date | Note |
Robert H. Swan | Director | Open Market Buy | 3,619 | ~$750K | May 7, 2026 | Discretionary open-market purchase; director adding to position at ~$207/share; modestly positive signal |
Brian L. Michaud | Executive VP | 10b5-1 Planned Sale | 848 | ~$175K | May 8, 2026 | Pre-planned 10b5-1 sale; routine disposition; not a discretionary signal |
Source: SEC Form 4 Filings (Insider Transaction Data). Approximate value calculated using transaction date closing price. Only open-market buys (code P) and sales (code S) plus 10b5-1 plan dispositions included; grants and awards excluded.
Key Takeaway: PAYX’s June 24 FY2026 Q4 earnings call — the only peer report in the last 60 days with commentary explicitly addressing the then-current reporting period and forward outlook — is a net positive read-through for ADP across PEO demand, retention, macro stability, and SMB conditions. The one cautionary note is PAYX’s expectation of a YoY decline in interest on funds held for clients, which is a relevant signal for ADP’s own float revenue trajectory into FY2027.
Inclusion Criteria: This section applies a strict filter — only peer commentary published within the last 60 days (i.e., on or after May 28, 2026) that explicitly addresses the peer’s then-current reporting period or forward outlook is included. Retrospective commentary about prior-quarter results (e.g., a peer discussing its own Q3 performance on a Q3 earnings call) is excluded. The only qualifying peer event in this window is the Paychex (PAYX) FY2026 Q4 Earnings Call on June 24, 2026, which covered PAYX’s then-current quarter results and provided explicit FY2027 forward guidance.
Relevance to ADP: PAYX is ADP’s closest direct peer in payroll processing and PEO services, with substantial overlap in SMB and mid-market client segments. PAYX’s FY2026 Q4 (ended May 31, 2026) is the most recent quarter reported by any direct HCM peer, and its FY2027 guidance (June 2026 – May 2027) provides the most current forward-looking read on industry demand, employment trends, retention dynamics, and interest on funds — all of which are directly relevant to ADP’s 4Q FY2026 (ended June 30, 2026) and FY2027 setup.
PAYX FY2027 Metric | PAYX Guidance | ADP Read-Through | Direction |
Total Revenue Growth | 5%–6% | Consistent with ADP’s 6%–7% FY2026 guide; suggests stable industry growth environment heading into ADP’s FY2027 | Neutral / Positive |
PEO & Insurance Solutions Revenue Growth | 6%–7% | Stronger PEO growth vs. core payroll; validates ADP’s PEO investment thesis and suggests robust demand in the outsourced HR segment | Positive |
Adjusted Operating Margin | ~44% | Margin expansion driven by technology productivity and acquisition synergies; consistent with ADP’s AI-driven margin expansion narrative | Positive |
Adjusted Diluted EPS Growth | 7%–9% | Solid EPS growth despite interest on funds headwind; ADP’s 10%–11% FY2026 EPS guide looks achievable in this context | Positive |
Interest on Funds Held for Clients | $195M–$205M (down ~4–5% YoY) | YoY decline driven by 75 bps of Fed cuts in late 2025 and lapping of one-time portfolio repositioning gains; ADP faces the same rate headwind into FY2027, though ADP’s extended investment strategy provides more insulation | Cautionary |
Employment Level Assumption | Flat employment for FY2027 | Consistent with ADP’s ~1% pays per control growth guide; confirms industry-wide expectation of muted organic employment growth, putting emphasis on bookings and pricing | Neutral |
Macro Environment Assessment | “Stable, no signs of recession” | Directly supportive of ADP’s demand environment characterization; reduces tail risk of a macro-driven miss in Q4 | Positive |
Source: Paychex (PAYX) FY2026 Q4 Earnings Call Transcript (June 24, 2026); Paychex FY2026 Q4 Earnings Release (June 24, 2026).
Peer | Last Report Date | Reason for Exclusion |
Paycom (PAYC) | Reported 1Q FY2026 (May 2026) | Last report was for 1Q FY2026 (ended March 31, 2026) — retrospective Q1 commentary; 2Q FY2026 earnings not yet reported as of July 28, 2026. No qualifying forward commentary in the last 60 days. |
Workday (WDAY) | Reported 1Q FY2027 (May 2026) | WDAY’s 1Q FY2027 earnings (ended April 30, 2026) were reported in late May 2026 — within the 60-day window, but WDAY is primarily an enterprise HCM/ERP software company with limited direct read-through to ADP’s payroll processing and PEO segments. Commentary was retrospective to WDAY’s own Q1 results. |
TriNet (TNET) | Reported 1Q FY2026 (May 2026) | 1Q FY2026 results (ended March 31, 2026) reported in May 2026 — retrospective Q1 commentary; 2Q FY2026 not yet reported. No qualifying forward commentary in the last 60 days. |
Barrett Business Services (BBSI) | Reported 1Q FY2026 (May 2026) | 1Q FY2026 results reported in May 2026 — retrospective Q1 commentary; 2Q FY2026 not yet reported. Smaller PEO player with limited read-through relevance. |