| AEE |
Report |
Q2 2026 Diluted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$1.10 vs. cons $1.08 |
MEDIUM |
| AEE |
Report |
Q2 2026 Total Operating Revenue |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.45B vs. cons $2.40B |
LOW |
| AEE |
Report |
O&M / Vegetation Management (tree-trimming) Expense Growth YoY |
MISS |
pred ~+10% YoY vs. implied cons ~+5% YoY |
MEDIUM |
| AEE |
Guide |
FY2026 Diluted EPS Guidance Range |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$5.25-$5.45 (midpoint $5.35) vs. cons midpoint $5.35 (FY2026) |
HIGH |
| AEE |
Guide |
2026-2030 Weather-Normalized Sales CAGR Assumption (pre-IRP update) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~6.2% vs. cons/prior guide 6.2% (2026-2030, ahead of Sept IRP reset) |
LOW |
| AEE |
Guide |
5-Year Capital Plan Size (2026-2030), ex.-large-load additive spend |
BETTER |
pred ~$34B vs. prior plan $32B (2026-2030) |
MEDIUM |
| AEE |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+0.4% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| AEE |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-0.3% (FADE) |
Q2 EPS likely tops the $1.08 consensus on continued infrastructure investment earnings, but management flagged Q2-specific vegetation-management cost inflation and reaffirmed (not raised) the $5.25-$5.45 FY guide despite the Q1 beat — a classic 'beat-but-no-raise' setup. With the stock already near highs pricing in continued execution and no major incremental ESA/IRP catalysts likely within the 5-day window (Sept IRP update is ~2 months out), sell-side models should trim near-term margin assumptions for higher O&M, pulling out-quarter/FY27 estimates down modestly and fading an initially muted positive reaction. |
MEDIUM |