AEE Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
AEE Report Q2 2026 Diluted EPS BEAT pred ~$1.10 vs. cons $1.08 MEDIUM
AEE Report Q2 2026 Total Operating Revenue BEAT pred ~$2.45B vs. cons $2.40B LOW
AEE Report O&M / Vegetation Management (tree-trimming) Expense Growth YoY MISS pred ~+10% YoY vs. implied cons ~+5% YoY MEDIUM
AEE Guide FY2026 Diluted EPS Guidance Range UNCHANGED guide ~$5.25-$5.45 (midpoint $5.35) vs. cons midpoint $5.35 (FY2026) HIGH
AEE Guide 2026-2030 Weather-Normalized Sales CAGR Assumption (pre-IRP update) UNCHANGED guide ~6.2% vs. cons/prior guide 6.2% (2026-2030, ahead of Sept IRP reset) LOW
AEE Guide 5-Year Capital Plan Size (2026-2030), ex.-large-load additive spend BETTER pred ~$34B vs. prior plan $32B (2026-2030) MEDIUM
AEE Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +0.4% MEDIUM
AEE Return 5-day cumulative residual -0.3% (FADE) Q2 EPS likely tops the $1.08 consensus on continued infrastructure investment earnings, but management flagged Q2-specific vegetation-management cost inflation and reaffirmed (not raised) the $5.25-$5.45 FY guide despite the Q1 beat — a classic 'beat-but-no-raise' setup. With the stock already near highs pricing in continued execution and no major incremental ESA/IRP catalysts likely within the 5-day window (Sept IRP update is ~2 months out), sell-side models should trim near-term margin assumptions for higher O&M, pulling out-quarter/FY27 estimates down modestly and fading an initially muted positive reaction. MEDIUM