AEP Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
AEP Report Q2 Operating EPS BEAT pred ~$1.50 vs. cons $1.48 (Q2'26, vs $1.43 Q2'25) MEDIUM
AEP Report Q2 Revenue IN-LINE pred ~$5.28B vs. cons $5.26B LOW
AEP Report Contracted load by 2030 (GW) BEAT pred ~65 GW vs. cons/prior 63 GW MEDIUM
AEP Guide FY2026 operating EPS guidance UNCHANGED guide $6.15–$6.45 (reaffirmed, tracking upper half) vs. cons ~$6.32 (FY2026) HIGH
AEP Guide Total capital plan UNCHANGED guide ~$78B vs. cons ~$78B (2025–2029 plan; formal refresh deferred to Q3) MEDIUM
AEP Guide Long-term operating EPS CAGR UNCHANGED guide >9% vs. cons ~7–9% framework (through 2030; fulsome update in Q3) MEDIUM
AEP Guide Texas SB6 / ERCOT interconnection timing (41 GW LOAs) UNKNOWN guide 'greater clarity later this summer' vs. cons ~41 GW ERCOT pipeline; derisking event but resolution likely partial LOW
AEP Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +0.8% LOW
AEP Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.5% (STABILIZE) Q2 is a seasonally small, largely pre-telegraphed print with the definitive capital/financing refresh explicitly deferred to Q3, so out-period math is neutral — no guidance raise to drive follow-through and no cut to force a fade. A modest EPS beat plus reaffirmed FY guide and another incremental load step-up should provide relief after the ~6% fade from the June $138.69 peak and the ~2% idiosyncratic drop into the print (AEP -2.1% vs XLU -1.2% on 7/29), but upside is capped as investors wait for the Q3 catalyst. Risks to the flat-to-slightly-positive drift: PJM interconnection uncertainty and Ohio affordability/rate-freeze politics. LOW