AEP Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
AEP Report Q2 2026 Operating EPS BEAT pred ~$1.55 vs. cons $1.48 HIGH
AEP Report Q2 2026 Revenue BEAT pred ~$5.45B vs. cons $5.30B MEDIUM
AEP Report Weather-Normalized Retail Sales/Load Growth (y/y %) BEAT pred ~8.5% vs. cons ~6.5% LOW
AEP Guide FY2026 Operating EPS Guidance (midpoint) UNCHANGED guide ~$6.30 vs. cons $6.32 (FY2026) HIGH
AEP Guide Incremental Contracted Load by 2030 (GW) BETTER guide ~68GW vs. cons/prior 63GW (by 2030) MEDIUM
AEP Guide 2026-2030 Five-Year Capital Plan ($B) UNCHANGED guide ~$78B vs. cons $78B (2026-2030, formal update expected Q3) MEDIUM
AEP Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.0% MEDIUM
AEP Return 5-day cumulative residual -1.5% (FADE) Mirrors the Q1 2026 pattern: AEP beat EPS/revenue and raised load figures, producing a same-day pop (+1.8% raw vs SPY +0.8%), but within days the stock gave back all of it and more (net -3% vs SPY +3% over the following week) as the market digested dilution risk from the ~$2.9B forward equity sale and lingering PJM/SPP interconnection friction. With the incremental $10B capex still not formally funded until Q3, another GW-raise or capex hint this quarter likely reignites equity-overhang and affordability-headline concerns, causing an initial pop to fade over the next few sessions even if headline EPS beats. LOW