{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 Operating EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.55 vs. cons $1.48",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 Revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$5.45B vs. cons $5.30B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Weather-Normalized Retail Sales/Load Growth (y/y %)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~8.5% vs. cons ~6.5%",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Operating EPS Guidance (midpoint)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$6.30 vs. cons $6.32 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Incremental Contracted Load by 2030 (GW)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~68GW vs. cons/prior 63GW (by 2030)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "2026-2030 Five-Year Capital Plan ($B)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$78B vs. cons $78B (2026-2030, formal update expected Q3)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -1.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Mirrors the Q1 2026 pattern: AEP beat EPS/revenue and raised load figures, producing a same-day pop (+1.8% raw vs SPY +0.8%), but within days the stock gave back all of it and more (net -3% vs SPY +3% over the following week) as the market digested dilution risk from the ~$2.9B forward equity sale and lingering PJM/SPP interconnection friction. With the incremental $10B capex still not formally funded until Q3, another GW-raise or capex hint this quarter likely reignites equity-overhang and affordability-headline concerns, causing an initial pop to fade over the next few sessions even if headline EPS beats.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}