| AJG |
Report |
Brokerage organic growth |
IN-LINE |
pred ~5.0% vs. cons ~5.0% |
MEDIUM |
| AJG |
Report |
Adjusted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.88 vs. cons ~$2.84 |
LOW |
| AJG |
Report |
Brokerage adjusted EBITDAC margin |
MISS |
pred ~35.0% vs. cons ~35.5% |
MEDIUM |
| AJG |
Guide |
Brokerage organic (FY2026) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~5.5% vs. cons ~5.5% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| AJG |
Guide |
Risk Management organic (FY2026) |
BETTER |
guide ~9% vs. cons ~8% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| AJG |
Guide |
Underlying brokerage margin expansion (FY2026) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~+50bps vs. cons ~+50bps (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| AJG |
Guide |
AssuredPartners synergy target |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$325M vs. prior ~$325M (by early 2028) |
LOW |
| AJG |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-3.0% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| AJG |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-5.0% (FADE) |
Stock ripped ~11% into the print (from ~$242 on 7/23 to ~$269 on 7/29) while the S&P fell, setting a very high bar. A fine-but-not-blowout ~5% brokerage organic print with optically soft reported margins/EPS growth (lost prior-year AP interest income) and accelerating property-rate declines gives buyers little to add to. Out-period math skews down: rate is only ~1pt of the ~5.5% organic outlook and property RPC is now down ~9-11%, so any hesitation on the 2H acceleration or 2027 pricing tone pulls estimates flat-to-lower even after an EPS beat, so the pre-print pop fades. |
MEDIUM |