| AJG |
Report |
Adjusted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.91 vs. cons ~$2.86 |
MEDIUM |
| AJG |
Report |
Total Revenue |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$4.05B vs. cons ~$4.03B |
MEDIUM |
| AJG |
Report |
Brokerage segment organic growth |
IN-LINE |
pred ~5.0% vs. cons ~5.0% |
HIGH |
| AJG |
Guide |
FY2026 Brokerage organic growth guide |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~5.5% vs. cons ~5.3% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| AJG |
Guide |
FY2026 Risk Management (Gallagher Bassett) organic growth guide |
BETTER |
guide ~8.0% vs. cons ~7.5% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| AJG |
Guide |
AssuredPartners run-rate synergy target |
BETTER |
guide ~$340M vs. cons ~$325M (by early 2028) |
LOW |
| AJG |
Guide |
FY2026 Brokerage underlying margin expansion guide |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~40-60bps (50bps midpoint) vs. cons ~50bps (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| AJG |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-1.8% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| AJG |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-2.7% (FADE) |
Stock rallied ~40% off May lows into the print on reaffirmed June Investor Day guidance, leaving little room for positive surprise; an in-line-to-modest-beat quarter with unchanged FY26 organic/margin guides is unlikely to justify the recent re-rating, and Zacks' own model does not predict a beat. Even a synergy-target raise on AssuredPartners is largely pre-anticipated. Expect initial day-1 profit-taking to extend over the week as sell-side models trim near-term estimates for continued property-pricing softness (-9% to -11%) and AP integration/netting noise, producing a mild fade rather than a reversal, since underlying fundamentals (Gallagher Bassett strength, casualty firmness, M&A pipeline) prevent a sharper breakdown. |
LOW |