AJG Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
AJG Report Adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$2.88 vs. cons $2.84 MEDIUM
AJG Report Brokerage organic growth BEAT pred ~5.1% vs. cons 5.0% MEDIUM
AJG Report AssuredPartners adjusted EBITDAC IN-LINE pred ~$224M vs. cons $222M MEDIUM
AJG Guide Brokerage organic growth guidance UNCHANGED guide ~5.5% vs. cons 5.5% (FY2026) HIGH
AJG Guide Risk Management organic growth guidance BETTER guide ~8.3% vs. cons 8.0% (FY2026) MEDIUM
AJG Guide AssuredPartners synergy run-rate guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$325M vs. cons $325M (early 2028) HIGH
AJG Guide Underlying Brokerage margin expansion guidance UNCHANGED guide ~50 bps vs. cons 50 bps (FY2026) MEDIUM
AJG Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.6% MEDIUM
AJG Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.7% (FADE) Initial upside from ~5.1% Brokerage organic growth versus 5.0% consensus and ~$2.88 EPS versus $2.84 consensus should fade because unchanged ~5.5% FY2026 Brokerage growth and ~$325M early-2028 synergies provide limited out-period estimate upside; an AssuredPartners Q2 beat with unchanged full-year economics also implies slightly softer remaining-period math. MEDIUM