{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.88 vs. cons $2.84",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Brokerage organic growth",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~5.1% vs. cons 5.0%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "AssuredPartners adjusted EBITDAC",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$224M vs. cons $222M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Brokerage organic growth guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~5.5% vs. cons 5.5% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Risk Management organic growth guidance",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~8.3% vs. cons 8.0% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "AssuredPartners synergy run-rate guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$325M vs. cons $325M (early 2028)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Underlying Brokerage margin expansion guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~50 bps vs. cons 50 bps (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.6,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.7,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Initial upside from ~5.1% Brokerage organic growth versus 5.0% consensus and ~$2.88 EPS versus $2.84 consensus should fade because unchanged ~5.5% FY2026 Brokerage growth and ~$325M early-2028 synergies provide limited out-period estimate upside; an AssuredPartners Q2 beat with unchanged full-year economics also implies slightly softer remaining-period math.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}