ALGN Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
ALGN Report Total revenue (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$1.062B vs. cons ~$1.05B MEDIUM
ALGN Report Clear Aligner volume (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~697K cases vs. cons ~690K MEDIUM
ALGN Report Non-GAAP EPS (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$2.73 vs. cons ~$2.64 MEDIUM
ALGN Guide FY2026 revenue growth guide UNCHANGED guide ~+3-4% YoY reaffirmed vs. cons ~+3.9% (FY2026) MEDIUM
ALGN Guide FY2026 non-GAAP operating margin guide UNCHANGED guide ~23.7% reaffirmed vs. cons ~23.7% (FY2026) MEDIUM
ALGN Guide Q3'26 revenue guide UNCHANGED guide ~$1.05-1.07B vs. cons ~$1.06B (Q3'26) LOW
ALGN Guide North America Clear Aligner trajectory (commentary) UNKNOWN pred ~stable/-1% YoY vs. cons hoping ~+1-2% inflection (Q2'26) LOW
ALGN Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -3.0% LOW
ALGN Return 5-day cumulative residual -5.0% (FADE) Stock rallied ~5% into the print (167->176), so expectations are elevated. Base case is a clean beat-and-reaffirm rather than the FY guidance raise bulls want; with North America still soft and out-period math implying a heavy 2H margin ramp to hit ~23.7%, a beat-only, no-raise print likely triggers 'sell the news.' Absent a clear NA inflection, revisions drift down and the post-print bounce fades further over the week. High-variance name (ALGN often moves double digits), so confidence is low; a genuine NA re-acceleration or guide raise would flip this to follow-through. LOW