I'll research American Tower (AMT) before writing the preview. Let me gather recent filings, earnings, and news.Let me read the most recent earnings materials and check the prior-year Q2 for context.Let me get recent news and the stock's recent performance for context.Let me pull the year-ago Q2 (2025Q2) release for the comparison base and check any DISH/SBA news.Let me read the year-ago Q2 2025 release to establish the comparison base.I now have what I need. Here's the earnings preview.
American Tower heads into Q2 with management framing the company as being on "its strongest strategic footing in at least a decade." The story going into this print is less about the tower leasing base (steady, but weighed down by known DISH/Sprint churn) and more about three swing factors: (1) whether FX-driven guidance raises continue, (2) the acceleration at CoreSite (data centers), and (3) capital-allocation signaling amid a busy tower-industry M&A backdrop. The stock has round-tripped in 2026 — opening the year near $174.80, peaking around $194 in early June, and drifting back to ~$166.77 by July 27 — so expectations are reset lower into the quarter.
Year-ago base (Q2 2025 actuals — the comparison quarter): | Metric | Q2 2025 | |---|---| | Total property revenue | $2,527M (+1.2% y/y) | | Total revenue | $2,627M | | Adjusted EBITDA | $1,752M (66.7% margin) | | AFFO attributable / share | $1,218M / $2.60 | | Consolidated organic tenant billings growth | 4.7% | | Net leverage | 5.1x | | Services revenue | $99.5M (near-record) |
The trajectory from Q1 2026 (last reported): Q1 property revenue grew 7.3% to $2,670M, adjusted EBITDA +5.2% to $1,835M, and AFFO/share was $2.84 (+3.3%). Consolidated organic tenant billings growth was reported at ~1.7% — but ~4% excluding one-time DISH churn, which is the number management wants investors to anchor on.
Full-year 2026 guidance (raised in April) — the yardstick for any Q2 revision: | FY2026 Guide (midpoint) | Value | Implied growth | |---|---|---| | Total property revenue | ~$10,660M | +3.4% | | Adjusted EBITDA | ~$7,230M | +1.4% | | AFFO attributable / share | $10.90–$11.07 (~$10.99) | +2.1% | | Consolidated organic tenant billings | ~1% (~4% ex-DISH) | — | | Data center property revenue | ~$1,185M | +12.5% |
With Q1 already at $2.84 of the ~$10.99 full-year AFFO/share midpoint, and management having guided that AFFO/share growth is back-half weighted (timing of maintenance capex and cash taxes), Q2 AFFO/share is likely to land in the broad vicinity of the year-ago $2.60, with FX as the key wildcard.
Both 2025 and 2026 saw a Q2 (April) style FX-and-straight-line-driven raise. In April, AMT lifted the full-year midpoints by $145M (revenue), $105M (EBITDA) and $0.12 (AFFO/share) — but management was explicit that ~$110M of the revenue raise was FX and ~$35M was non-cash straight-line (Oi in Latin America), not core outperformance. Watch for whether any Q2 raise reflects underlying leasing strength versus another currency translation benefit. The prior guide was set at BRL 5.50 and EUR 0.85; a weaker dollar since then would be an additional tailwind, a stronger one a headwind.
Management has "completely derisked" guidance by removing DISH from the numbers, so any DISH resolution is upside, not downside. Key nuance: U.S. churn is back-half weighted in 2026. In Africa/APAC, for example, they guided ~10% organic in H1 stepping down to ~7% in H2 as churn hits. Q2 is still a "cleaner" first-half quarter, so U.S. & Canada organic growth ex-DISH should again print ~5%. The read-through investors want: is the underlying leasing pipeline (mid-band 5G, densification) holding up as carrier capex stays in the ~$30–35B range?
This is where the narrative has shifted most. Q1 data-center cash revenue grew ~17%, and management flagged a "clear inflection in interconnection activity" — higher-margin, stickier revenue driven by hybrid/multi-cloud and AI inferencing. They also boosted held-for-development capacity by 200 MW and are spending ~$695M of development capex in data centers this year. Watch for: another leg up in interconnection, a possible new-market or capacity announcement, and any updated commentary on CoreSite's strategic role (management is "increasingly enthusiastic about accelerating CoreSite's expansion," and pointedly reiterated it's a long-term keeper amid sky-high private DC multiples).
Q2 2025 services revenue was ~$99.5M — one of the highest quarters on record — versus just $67.6M in Q1 2026 (down 9.4% y/y). Management has already flagged services as a ~100 bps AFFO/share headwind this year. A soft services y/y line is expected and shouldn't be misread as core weakness, but it will pressure the optics of total revenue growth.
AMT ended Q1 at 4.9x net leverage (lowest in the peer group, highest credit rating), had repurchased >$565M of stock since starting buybacks in Q4, and grew the dividend ~5%. On the call, expect heavy focus on: - Buyback pace and whether it accelerates given the pullback in the shares. - The SBA take-private / private-market chatter. Management leaned into the "disconnect between public and private tower multiples," framing it as validation of the long-term value of towers and hinting at openness to U.S. M&A "at the right terms." Any signal on portfolio optimization (buy or sell) is a potential catalyst. - Build-to-suit optionality — 700+ new European sites planned, and management is angling to re-enter U.S. new builds as economics rationalize.
At ~$166.77, AMT trades around ~15x the ~$10.99 midpoint FY26 AFFO/share, with a dividend yield in the low-4% range and ~5% dividend growth. The shares are roughly flat-to-down YTD and ~14% off the early-June high, so sentiment is cautious into the print. Peers CCI (~$74) and SBAC (~$173) have also drifted lower recently. The bull case rests on: derisked (DISH-out) guidance, a strengthening CoreSite/interconnection engine, deleveraging toward the low-4x range with growing buybacks, and Brazil bottoming. The bear case: core organic growth is still low-single-digit and heavily FX/straight-line flattered, U.S. tower activity remains muted, and back-half churn plus a tough services comp cap reported growth.
Note: figures above are drawn from AMT's Q1 2026 and Q2 2025 earnings releases and the Q1 2026 earnings call; forward expectations reflect company guidance, not independent consensus estimates. This is an informational preview, not investment advice.