American Tower Corporation (AMT) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

Company

American Tower Corporation

Ticker

AMT (NYSE)

Reporting Period

Q2 2026 (Quarter ended June 30, 2026)

Earnings Date

July 28, 2026 — Before Market Open

Prepared

July 27, 2026

Sector ETF Benchmark

RWR (SPDR Dow Jones REIT ETF)

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: Setup is mixed-to-cautiously-positive — consensus is a manageable bar on AFFO per share, but the stock has already de-rated ~6.5% since Q1 earnings and the biggest swing factor is whether organic tenant billings growth (ex-DISH) shows any acceleration above the ~4% guided rate.

Heading into Q2 2026, AMT faces a consensus AFFO per share estimate of ~$2.72 against a Q1 2026 actual of $2.84 — a bar that implies modest sequential deceleration, consistent with management's own guidance that AFFO per share growth will be back-half weighted due to maintenance CapEx and cash tax timing. Management's tone since the April 28 Q1 print has been decidedly constructive: CoreSite CapEx was raised from ~$200M to ~$800M annually (disclosed at the May Moffett Nathanson conference), interconnection activity inflected in Q1, and the company reiterated its 200–300 bps cash EBITDA margin expansion target through 2030. Estimate revisions have been essentially flat since the Q1 print — the FY 2026 AFFO per share consensus sits at $11.01 vs. $11.02 at the post-Q1 baseline — suggesting the street has largely digested the guidance raise and is not pricing in incremental upside. The stock has underperformed both the REIT ETF (RWR +8.8%) and the S&P 500 (+3.8%) since Q1 earnings, declining ~6.5%, which means the multiple has compressed and the setup is not one where a beat is already priced in. The key wildcard is the DISH/EchoStar litigation: the FCC-mandated $2.4B escrow tied to the AT&T spectrum transaction closing could represent meaningful upside to guidance if any proceeds flow to AMT, and any update on timing or quantum would likely be the single biggest stock catalyst on the call.

Bar: Consensus AFFO per share of ~$2.72 for Q2 2026 is a low-to-moderate bar — AMT has beaten AFFO estimates in each of the last several quarters, and the Q1 beat was substantial ($2.84 vs. ~$2.73 consensus). Revenue consensus of ~$2.71B implies modest YoY growth, consistent with DISH churn headwinds masking underlying ~5% cash FX-neutral growth.

Guidance/Tone: Management has been increasingly confident since Q1 — CoreSite CapEx tripled, buybacks exceeded $565M since Q4 2024, and the 6G densification thesis was amplified at multiple conferences. No formal guidance revision has been issued post-Q1, but qualitative tone has shifted more bullish on CoreSite and edge compute.

Estimate Trajectory: Revisions are essentially flat since Q1 earnings — FY 2026 AFFO per share consensus moved from $11.02 (post-Q1 baseline) to $11.01 currently, and Q2 2026 AFFO per share moved from $2.72 to $2.72. No divergence from guidance; estimates are tracking the raised guidance midpoint closely.

Stock Setup: AMT has declined ~6.5% since Q1 earnings vs. RWR +8.8% and SPY +3.8%, representing meaningful multiple compression. The stock is not pricing in a beat — it is pricing in continued DISH-related headwinds and macro rate sensitivity. A clean beat with any positive DISH/escrow update could drive a sharp re-rating.

Wildcard: The $2.4B EchoStar/AT&T escrow account — funded upon AT&T spectrum transaction close — is the single biggest binary event. Any update on timing, AMT's claim size, or early distributions would be incremental upside to guidance (DISH is fully excluded from AMT's numbers). Additionally, any acceleration in U.S. organic tenant billings growth above the ~5% ex-DISH guided rate would be a positive surprise.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus is a manageable bar on AFFO per share (~$2.72 vs. $2.84 Q1 actual), but organic tenant billings growth (~1.4% consensus) remains the bigger swing factor — any acceleration above the ~4% ex-DISH rate would be the most meaningful positive signal for the stock.

Table 1 — Q2 2026 Current Quarter Snapshot (All Key KPIs)

KPI

Q1 2026 Actual

Q2 2025 Actual (Prior Year)

Q2 2026 Consensus Estimate

YoY Change

FY 2026 Guidance (Midpoint)

Consensus vs. Guidance (%)

AFFO per Share (Attributable to AMT)

$2.84

$2.60

$2.72

+4.5% YoY

$10.99 FY (implied ~$2.72–$2.75/Q avg)

~+1% above FY midpoint run-rate

Total Property Revenue

$2,737.5M

$2,626.9M

$2,706.5M

+3.0% YoY

~$10,954M FY (implied ~$2,700M/Q avg)

~+0.2% above FY run-rate

Adjusted EBITDA

$1,835.2M

$1,751.8M

$1,789.9M

+2.2% YoY

~$7,247M FY (implied ~$1,812M/Q avg)

~-1.2% below FY run-rate

Organic Tenant Billings Growth (Consolidated)

~1.7% (4% ex-DISH)

~4.7%

~1.4%

-330 bps YoY (DISH drag)

~1% FY (4% ex-DISH)

~+40 bps above FY guide

Data Center Revenue (CoreSite)

$288.9M

$261.9M

$293.5M

+12.1% YoY

~$1,194M FY (~13% growth)

~+1.6% above FY run-rate

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. All consensus figures as of July 27, 2026. FY 2026 guidance midpoint per Q1 2026 earnings call (April 28, 2026). YoY change computed vs. Q2 2025 actuals from Visible Alpha.

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History (Last 8 Quarters, Top 2 KPIs)

KPI 1: AFFO per Share (Attributable to AMT)

Quarter

Reported

Consensus

Surprise %

Result

Q1 2026

$2.84

$2.73

+4.0%

Beat

Q4 2025

$2.63

$2.56

+2.7%

Beat

Q3 2025

$2.78

$2.62

+6.1%

Beat

Q2 2025

$2.60

$2.61

-0.4%

Miss

Q1 2025

N/A — not in VA for prior periods

N/A

N/A

N/A

KPI 2: Organic Tenant Billings Growth (%)

Quarter

Reported

Consensus

Surprise (bps)

Result

Q1 2026

1.69%

1.45%

+24 bps

Beat

Q4 2025

5.95%

5.85%

+10 bps

Beat

Q3 2025

4.95%

4.72%

+23 bps

Beat

Q2 2025

4.67%

4.43%

+24 bps

Beat

Pattern: AMT has beaten AFFO per share consensus in 3 of the last 4 reported quarters, with the Q1 2026 beat (+4.0%) being the largest in recent history. Organic tenant billings growth has consistently come in above consensus in recent quarters, though the absolute level has compressed sharply due to DISH churn. The Q2 2025 AFFO miss was the lone exception in the recent trend.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: No formal guidance revision has been issued since the Q1 2026 earnings call (April 28), but management's qualitative tone has shifted meaningfully more bullish on CoreSite — the tripling of annual CoreSite CapEx to ~$800M is the most significant post-earnings development and signals accelerating conviction in data center demand.

Metric

Initial Guidance (Q1 2026 Earnings Call, Apr 28)

Revised Guidance

Current Consensus

Note

FY 2026 Attributable AFFO per Share

~$10.99 midpoint (raised $0.12 from prior guide; implies ~2% reported YoY growth)

$11.01

No post-earnings revision; consensus tracking guidance midpoint closely

FY 2026 Total Property Revenue

Raised ~$145M at midpoint vs. prior guide; implies ~3% YoY growth ex-SL/FX; ~5% cash FX-neutral ex-DISH

~$10,954M

No post-earnings revision; FX and straight-line tailwinds drove Q1 raise

FY 2026 Adjusted EBITDA

Raised ~$105M at midpoint vs. prior guide; implies ~2% YoY growth ex-SL/FX; ~5% cash FX-neutral ex-DISH

~$7,247M

No post-earnings revision; consensus in line with guidance

Consolidated Organic Tenant Billings Growth

~1% FY (reiterated); ~4% ex-DISH churn

~1.24% FY

Reiterated at Q1; no change; consensus slightly above guide midpoint

Data Center Revenue Growth (CoreSite)

~13% YoY FY 2026

~13% YoY (FY ~$1,194M)

CoreSite CapEx raised from ~$200M to ~$800M/yr (May 2026 Moffett Nathanson conf.); tone significantly more bullish

Annual CoreSite CapEx

~$200M (prior run-rate)

~$800M (raised at May 2026 Moffett Nathanson conference)

N/A — not a consensus-tracked KPI

↑ Raised 4x at Moffett Nathanson conf. May 14, 2026; reflects AI inferencing demand and pipeline visibility; most significant post-Q1 development

Cash EBITDA Margin Expansion Target

200–300 bps over 5 years (by 2030); reiterated Q1

N/A

Reiterated at Nareit REITweek (June 3, 2026); tone unchanged; confident

AFFO per Share Growth (Back-Half Weighting)

Growth faster in H2 vs. H1 due to maintenance CapEx and cash tax timing

N/A

Reiterated at multiple conferences; implies Q2 may still be below H2 run-rate

Source: Q1 2026 Earnings Call (April 28, 2026); Moffett Nathanson Media, Internet & Communications Conference (May 14, 2026); JP Morgan Global Technology, Media and Communications Conference (May 19, 2026); Nareit REITweek Investor Conference (June 3, 2026). Consensus from Visible Alpha.

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Estimates have been essentially unchanged since the Q1 2026 print — the street has absorbed the guidance raise and is not pricing in incremental upside or downside. The gap between consensus and guidance is minimal, suggesting estimates are tracking guidance closely with no meaningful divergence risk.

KPI (Period)

Estimate ~5 Days Post Q1 Earnings (May 3, 2026)

Current Consensus (Jul 27, 2026)

Estimate Δ (%)

Initial Guidance (Q1 Call)

Current Guidance

Guidance Δ

Consensus vs. Guidance (%)

AFFO/Share — Q2 2026

$2.716

$2.715

-0.04%

No Q2-specific guidance provided

No Q2-specific guidance provided

N/A

N/A

AFFO/Share — FY 2026

$11.019

$11.014

-0.04%

~$10.99 midpoint

~$10.99 midpoint (unchanged)

0%

+0.2% above guidance midpoint

Total Revenue — Q2 2026

$2,701.9M

$2,706.5M

+0.2%

No Q2-specific guidance provided

No Q2-specific guidance provided

N/A

N/A

Total Revenue — FY 2026

$10,941.9M

$10,953.6M

+0.1%

Raised ~$145M at midpoint vs. prior guide

Unchanged since Q1 call

0%

~+0.1% above guidance midpoint

Adj. EBITDA — Q2 2026

$1,788.2M

$1,789.9M

+0.1%

No Q2-specific guidance provided

No Q2-specific guidance provided

N/A

N/A

Adj. EBITDA — FY 2026

$7,251.7M

$7,247.5M

-0.1%

Raised ~$105M at midpoint vs. prior guide

Unchanged since Q1 call

0%

~-0.1% below guidance midpoint

Organic Tenant Billings Growth — Q2 2026

1.42%

1.43%

+0.01 pp

~1% FY (4% ex-DISH)

Unchanged since Q1 call

0%

~+43 bps above FY guide

Data Center Revenue — Q2 2026

$292.8M

$293.5M

+0.2%

~13% YoY FY growth

Unchanged; CapEx raised to ~$800M/yr

0%

~+1.6% above FY run-rate

Estimates have been remarkably stable since the Q1 2026 print — all key KPIs moved less than 0.1% in either direction over the ~3-month window. This stability reflects a market that has fully digested the guidance raise and is waiting for Q2 results to determine whether the back-half acceleration thesis is on track. The absence of estimate drift is neither a risk nor a cushion — it simply means the bar is exactly where management set it.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Post-Q1 baseline as of May 3, 2026 (5 trading days after April 28 earnings). Current consensus as of July 27, 2026.

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: AMT has underperformed both the REIT sector and the broader market since Q1 earnings, declining ~6.5% vs. RWR +8.8% and SPY +3.8% — the underperformance is driven by multiple compression and sector rotation into higher-growth REITs, not estimate cuts, suggesting the stock is not pricing in a beat heading into Q2.

AMT vs. CCI vs. RWR (REIT ETF) vs. S&P 500 — Indexed to 100 at Q1 2026 Earnings (April 28, 2026). Source: Yahoo Finance.

Performance Summary (April 28 – July 28, 2026):

Key Events on Chart:

Source: Yahoo Finance. Sector ETF: RWR (SPDR Dow Jones REIT ETF) — appropriate for AMT's REIT classification. Tower peer: CCI (Crown Castle Inc.).

6. Peer Commentaries — Read-Through (Last 60 Days, Q2 2026 Relevant)

Key Takeaway: Peer commentary from CCI's Q2 2026 earnings (July 22) and SBAC's JP Morgan conference (May 18) are the most directly relevant read-throughs for AMT — CCI's disclosure of lower U.S. services activity in Q3 is a mild negative signal for AMT's U.S. leasing momentum, while SBAC's commentary on Brazil churn peaking and 6G/spectrum tailwinds is constructive for AMT's international thesis.

Note: Only commentary from the last 60 days (May 27 – July 27, 2026) that speaks to Q2 2026 conditions or the current operating environment is included below. Prior-quarter earnings calls discussing prior-quarter results are excluded.

Crown Castle (CCI) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call (July 22, 2026)

Relevance to AMT: HIGH — Direct U.S. tower peer; most timely read-through available.

SBA Communications (SBAC) — JP Morgan TMC Conference (May 18, 2026)

Relevance to AMT: HIGH — Direct global tower peer; commentary covers U.S. and Brazil (AMT's key LatAm market).

Crown Castle (CCI) — Nareit REITweek Conference (June 2, 2026)

Relevance to AMT: MEDIUM — Confirms industry-level themes; some overlap with Q2 earnings call commentary.

Digital Realty (DLR) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call (July 23, 2026)

Relevance to AMT: MEDIUM — Relevant for CoreSite read-through on data center demand and AI inferencing.

Equinix (EQIX) — Nareit REITweek Conference (June 3, 2026)

Relevance to AMT: MEDIUM — Relevant for CoreSite interconnection read-through; EQIX is the closest comp to CoreSite's interconnection-hub model.

Sources: CCI Q2 2026 Earnings Call (July 22, 2026); SBAC JP Morgan Global Technology, Media and Communications Conference (May 18, 2026); CCI Nareit REITweek Conference (June 2, 2026); DLR Q2 2026 Earnings Call (July 23, 2026); EQIX Nareit REITweek Conference (June 3, 2026).

7. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The most important development since Q1 earnings is the tripling of CoreSite annual CapEx to ~$800M, signaling a step-change in AMT's data center growth ambitions; the DISH/EchoStar escrow mechanism tied to the AT&T spectrum transaction remains the single biggest binary catalyst for the print.

8. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: Only one insider transaction was identified since Q1 2026 earnings — a small 10b5-1 planned sale by the EVP/General Counsel in late April. No open-market discretionary buys or sells; no clustered activity or unusual patterns. Nothing notable to flag.

Name

Title

Transaction Type

Shares

Transaction Date

Filing Date

Note

Dowling, Ruth T.

EVP, Chief Admin Officer, GC & Secretary

10b5-1 Planned Sale

556 shares

April 28, 2026

April 30, 2026

Pre-planned 10b5-1 sale; not discretionary. Shares remaining after transaction: 29,877.

Dowling, Ruth T.

EVP, Chief Admin Officer, GC & Secretary

10b5-1 Planned Sale

416 shares

April 29, 2026

April 30, 2026

Pre-planned 10b5-1 sale; not discretionary. Shares remaining after transaction: 29,461.

The only insider activity since Q1 2026 earnings consists of two small 10b5-1 pre-planned sales by the EVP/General Counsel on April 28–29, 2026 (the day of and day after Q1 earnings), totaling 972 shares. These are obligation-driven, pre-scheduled transactions with no informational content. No open-market discretionary buys or sells were filed by any insider during the period. The absence of discretionary selling by the CEO or CFO following the Q1 beat is a mild positive signal — no insider appears to be using the post-earnings strength to reduce exposure.

Source: SEC Form 4 Filings Database. Window: April 28, 2026 – July 27, 2026. Only open-market transactions (codes P/S) and 10b5-1 plan initiations included.