AMZN Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
AMZN Report AWS revenue (YoY growth) BEAT pred ~$41.3B / +29% vs. cons $40.5B / ~28% MEDIUM
AMZN Report Consolidated operating income BEAT pred ~$23.0B vs. cons $21.5B MEDIUM
AMZN Report Total net revenue BEAT pred ~$199.5B vs. cons $196.7B MEDIUM
AMZN Guide Q3'26 revenue guidance LOWER guide ~$206B (midpoint) vs. cons ~$209B (Q3 2026) MEDIUM
AMZN Guide Q3'26 operating income guidance LOWER guide ~$21.5B (midpoint) vs. cons ~$23B (Q3 2026) LOW
AMZN Guide FY2026 capex guidance LOWER guide raised to ~$215B vs. prior/cons ~$205B (FY2026) — higher spend, negative for FCF MEDIUM
AMZN Guide AWS operating margin UNCHANGED guide/pred ~33.5% vs. cons ~33.8% (Q2 2026) LOW
AMZN Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +2.5% MEDIUM
AMZN Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.5% (FADE) A clean AWS re-acceleration (~29%) plus an operating-income beat off a Prime-Day-flattered Q2 should spark a relief bounce in a washed-out, low-expectations stock (fwd P/E <18, down ~16% from highs). But the initial pop fades: the Prime Day pull-forward pressures Q3 comps so the Q3 revenue/OI guide screens soft, and a capex hike toward ~$215B (DRAM/AI-driven) reignites the 'prove-the-ROI'/FCF fatigue that panned Alphabet. Out-period math means Street trims Q3 estimates even after the Q2 beat, capping follow-through and pulling the residual back toward flat. LOW