{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "AWS revenue (YoY growth)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$41.3B / +29% vs. cons $40.5B / ~28%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Consolidated operating income",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$23.0B vs. cons $21.5B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total net revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$199.5B vs. cons $196.7B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q3'26 revenue guidance",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$206B (midpoint) vs. cons ~$209B (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q3'26 operating income guidance",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$21.5B (midpoint) vs. cons ~$23B (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 capex guidance",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide raised to ~$215B vs. prior/cons ~$205B (FY2026) \u2014 higher spend, negative for FCF",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "AWS operating margin",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide/pred ~33.5% vs. cons ~33.8% (Q2 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 2.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "A clean AWS re-acceleration (~29%) plus an operating-income beat off a Prime-Day-flattered Q2 should spark a relief bounce in a washed-out, low-expectations stock (fwd P/E <18, down ~16% from highs). But the initial pop fades: the Prime Day pull-forward pressures Q3 comps so the Q3 revenue/OI guide screens soft, and a capex hike toward ~$215B (DRAM/AI-driven) reignites the 'prove-the-ROI'/FCF fatigue that panned Alphabet. Out-period math means Street trims Q3 estimates even after the Q2 beat, capping follow-through and pulling the residual back toward flat.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}