AMZN Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
AMZN Report AWS Revenue BEAT pred ~$41.0B vs. cons $40.5B MEDIUM
AMZN Report Total Net Sales BEAT pred ~$198.0B vs. cons $196.5B MEDIUM
AMZN Report Operating Income BEAT pred ~$23.5B vs. cons $22.3B MEDIUM
AMZN Guide Q3 2026 Revenue Guidance BETTER guide ~$207B vs. cons $203.5B (Q3 2026) MEDIUM
AMZN Guide FY2026 Total Capex Guidance LOWER guide ~$212B vs. cons $205B (FY2026) — raise viewed as bearish signal despite higher absolute number MEDIUM
AMZN Guide AWS Operating Margin Outlook LOWER guide/implied ~33.0% vs. cons 34.0% (Q3 2026) on Trainium ramp and Leo cost drag LOW
AMZN Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -3.0% MEDIUM
AMZN Return 5-day cumulative residual -5.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Even with an AWS/revenue beat, a capex guide raise (following GOOGL/META precedent this season) forces sell-side to push out FCF breakeven and trim FY27 margin/EPS estimates once models are updated over the following days, extending the initial negative reaction rather than reversing it; the 'AI capex fatigue' narrative already hit the whole hyperscaler cohort and Amazon's own bond-funded buildout keeps scrutiny elevated, so estimate revisions likely drift lower through the week before any stabilization. MEDIUM