{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "AWS Revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$41.0B vs. cons $40.5B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total Net Sales",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$198.0B vs. cons $196.5B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Operating Income",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$23.5B vs. cons $22.3B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q3 2026 Revenue Guidance",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$207B vs. cons $203.5B (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Total Capex Guidance",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$212B vs. cons $205B (FY2026) \u2014 raise viewed as bearish signal despite higher absolute number",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "AWS Operating Margin Outlook",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide/implied ~33.0% vs. cons 34.0% (Q3 2026) on Trainium ramp and Leo cost drag",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -3.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -5.5,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "Even with an AWS/revenue beat, a capex guide raise (following GOOGL/META precedent this season) forces sell-side to push out FCF breakeven and trim FY27 margin/EPS estimates once models are updated over the following days, extending the initial negative reaction rather than reversing it; the 'AI capex fatigue' narrative already hit the whole hyperscaler cohort and Amazon's own bond-funded buildout keeps scrutiny elevated, so estimate revisions likely drift lower through the week before any stabilization.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}