AMZN Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
AMZN Report AWS revenue BEAT pred ~$41.1B vs. cons $40.5B MEDIUM
AMZN Report AWS operating margin BEAT pred ~34.6% vs. cons 33.8% MEDIUM
AMZN Report Consolidated operating income BEAT pred ~$24.3B vs. cons $23.6B MEDIUM
AMZN Guide Q3 revenue guidance midpoint UNCHANGED guide ~$203.0B vs. cons $203.0B (Q3 2026) MEDIUM
AMZN Guide Q3 operating income guidance midpoint LOWER guide ~$21.8B vs. cons $23.0B (Q3 2026) MEDIUM
AMZN Guide AWS growth commentary BETTER guide ~33% vs. cons 32% (Q3 2026) LOW
AMZN Guide Capital expenditures LOWER guide ~$210.0B vs. cons $207.4B (FY 2026) MEDIUM
AMZN Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +2.8% MEDIUM
AMZN Return 5-day cumulative residual +1.2% (FADE) Q2 AWS and operating-income beats support an initial +2.8% residual, but a Q3 operating-income guide of ~$21.8B vs. $23.0B consensus and FY2026 capex of ~$210.0B vs. $207.4B consensus trigger out-period earnings and free-cash-flow cuts, fading the cumulative residual to +1.2% by day 5. MEDIUM