I'll research AON before writing the preview. Let me start by gathering recent earnings materials, filings, and news.Let me read the most recent earnings release and call transcript, plus the last two quarters for context.I have strong Q1 2026 detail. Now let me pull the year-ago Q2 2025 comparison, recent news, stock price performance, and analyst expectations.Let me check the recent quarterly organic-growth trend and any analyst commentary/consensus.I now have a comprehensive picture across the last five quarters, guidance, capital actions, and the stock setup. Here's my earnings preview.
Aon heads into Q2 as a "beat-and-reaffirm" compounder story that has been executing cleanly against its 3x3 Plan (2026 is the final year), but the print lands with two complications investors should pre-load: (1) a stretched year-ago EPS comp inflated by an abnormally low tax rate, and (2) a stock that has rallied ~8% into the print, raising the bar.
The year-ago quarter is the crux of the setup:
| Metric (Q2 2025, year-ago) | Value |
|---|---|
| Total revenue | $4,155M (+11% reported, +6% organic) |
| Adjusted operating margin | 28.2% (+80 bps) |
| Adjusted EPS | $3.49 (+19%) |
| Free cash flow | $732M |
| Adjusted effective tax rate | 16.5% |
The +19% adjusted EPS growth last year was heavily flattered by a 16.5% adjusted tax rate (vs. 22.2% the prior year), driven by discrete items and geographic mix. Aon's full-year 2026 tax guide is 19.5%–20.5% (Q1'26 came in at 20.3%). That means Q2'26 likely carries a 300–400 bps higher tax rate than the year-ago base, a mechanical headwind of roughly $0.20+ to reported adjusted EPS growth. Bottom line: even with healthy operating momentum, headline adjusted-EPS growth off the $3.49 base could look pedestrian (I'd frame ~$3.60–$3.75, i.e., mid-single-digit growth). Don't confuse tax-comp optics with operational deterioration — watch operating income and margin, not just the EPS % change.
(Note: I was unable to retrieve reliable published sell-side consensus for this quarter; the figures above are the reported year-ago actuals and my own framing, not street estimates.)
Organic growth has been steady in the mid-single-digits-plus, exactly where the guide sits:
| Quarter | Organic | Commercial Risk | Reinsurance | Health | Wealth | Adj. EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'25 | 5% | — | — | 4% | 1% | $5.67 |
| Q2'25 | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 3% | $3.49 |
| Q3'25 | 7% | 7% | 8% | 6% | 5% | $3.05 |
| Q4'25 | 5% | 6% | 8% | 2% | 2% | $4.85 |
| Q1'26 | 5% | 7% | 4% | 4% | 1% | $6.48 (+14%) |
| FY2025 | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | $17.07 (+9%) |
Q1'26 delivered 5% organic, +70 bps adjusted margin expansion to 39.1%, adjusted EPS +14%, and FCF up 332% to $363M, and management reaffirmed the full-year framework.
Introduced in Jan '26 and reaffirmed at Q1: - Mid-single-digit or greater organic revenue growth - 70–80 bps of adjusted operating margin expansion - Strong adjusted EPS growth - Double-digit free cash flow growth - At least $1B in share repurchases ($500M already done in Q1)
The key question isn't whether they reaffirm — it's whether Q2 momentum lets them sound more confident about the "or greater" on organic and the top of the margin range.
Commercial Risk Solutions (the crown jewel right now) — 7% organic in Q1'26 marked the 4th straight quarter ≥6%, with double-digit North America growth and broad-based strength (U.S. core P&C, construction/data centers, M&A services, MGAs). Q2 is seasonally the biggest property quarter, and property rates are soft (down ~15%). Management insists net market impact stays within its 0–2 pt framework and that growth is "largely uncorrelated with pricing." Watch whether the streak extends and whether softening P&C/property pricing finally dents net-new growth.
Reinsurance Solutions — Q2 is seasonally the smallest reinsurance quarter (mid-year Florida renewals). Management flagged April 1 renewal rates down 15–20% in the U.S. and Japan, partially offset by ~10% higher demand, and is counting on a stronger H2 (facultative, Strategy & Technology Group). A soft Q2 here is expected — the risk is if rate pressure outpaces new business/volume.
Health Solutions — 4% in Q1'26, with core health & benefits solid but Talent Solutions discretionary spend still weak. Guide is mid-single-digit for the year; watch whether Talent stabilizes.
Wealth Solutions — Only 1% in Q1'26 (depressed by the NFP Wealth divestiture). Management guided mid-single-digit for Q2, leaning on the strong UK pension-risk-transfer market where Aon leads. This should be the most-improved line sequentially.
Unlike last year (when NFP was a big inorganic tailwind), 2026 carries a ~3-point unfavorable drag from divestitures (sales of NFP Wealth and Stroz Friedberg). So reported total revenue growth will substantially lag organic — reported revenue could land roughly flat-to-modestly-up vs. the $4,155M year-ago base even with ~5% organic. This is optical, not fundamental, but headline-scanners may misread it. FX, which was a +4% revenue tailwind in Q1, is guided to a de minimis EPS impact in Q2 (still ~+$0.44 to adjusted EPS for the full year).
Fundamentally, Aon looks positioned to deliver another ~5% organic quarter, continued margin expansion, and strong cash generation, with a likely reaffirmation of full-year guidance and probably firmer language on buybacks. The nuance for investors: the headline adjusted-EPS growth rate will be optically muted by the tax comp and the divestiture drag on reported revenue — so judge the quarter on organic growth durability (especially Commercial Risk), net-market-impact resilience against soft pricing, and margin trajectory, not the EPS % change. With the stock rallying into the print, the risk/reward skews toward needing an "or greater" organic tone and/or a raised capital-return commitment to justify further upside.