AON Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
AON Report Adjusted EPS (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$3.85 vs. cons $3.77 MEDIUM
AON Report Total Organic Revenue Growth (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~5.3% vs. cons ~5.0% MEDIUM
AON Report Adjusted Operating Margin (Q2 2026) IN-LINE pred ~28.9% vs. cons ~28.8% MEDIUM
AON Guide FY2026 Organic Revenue Growth Guidance UNCHANGED guide ~mid-single-digit-or-greater (~5.5%) vs. cons ~5.3% (FY2026) HIGH
AON Guide FY2026 Adjusted Operating Margin Expansion Guidance UNCHANGED guide ~75bps vs. cons ~75bps (FY2026) HIGH
AON Guide FY2026 Free Cash Flow Growth Guidance UNCHANGED guide ~double-digit (~12%) vs. cons ~11% (FY2026) MEDIUM
AON Guide FY2026 Effective Tax Rate Guidance UNCHANGED guide ~19.5-20.5% (~20.0%) vs. cons ~20.0% (FY2026) HIGH
AON Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -2.0% MEDIUM
AON Return 5-day cumulative residual -3.5% (FADE) Stock ran ~6-8% into the print to fresh 52-week highs pricing in a clean beat-and-raise; likely outcome is a beat-but-hold quarter (EPS beat, organic growth in-line/slight beat, margin roughly in-line) with FY26 guidance merely reaffirmed rather than raised. Reinsurance/property pricing pressure (15-20% April renewal declines) persisting into Q2's peak property quarter and softening fiduciary investment income cap margin upside, so sell-side is unlikely to raise H2 estimates materially even after a Q2 beat - an implicit out-period holding/cut relative to the run-up's embedded optimism, driving post-print profit-taking and multiple compression over the following days. MEDIUM